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The diffusion of wind propulsion technologies in shipping: an agent-based model

Karlsen, R; Papachristos, G; Rehmatulla, N; (2018) The diffusion of wind propulsion technologies in shipping: an agent-based model. In: McMeekin, A, (ed.) (Proceedings) IST 2018, 9th International Sustainability Transitions Conference, 12 - 14 June 2018, Manchester, UK. Sustainability Transitions Research Network (STRN) (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

International shipping accounts for around 80% of global trade and is therefore critical to global economy. Carbon emissions from international shipping are expected to increase significantly in line with the global trade. A range of niche technologies developed for ship propulsion provide solutions to reduce shipping CO2 emissions. However, these technologies face barriers that limit their diffusion. This paper focuses on the Flettner rotor technology through a transition perspective. An agent based model is developed to explore the diffusion of Flettner rotors in time charter drybulk shipping to 2050, under imperfect agent information and split incentives barriers that current shipping models omit. Simulation results are more conservative compared to those models. In the “business as usual” scenario, barriers impact the technology diffusion rate and its timing, even on shipping routes or geographical niches with favourable wind conditions. Further exploration of simulation scenarios reveals that the introduction of carbon pricing, or demonstration project policies, increases technology diffusion and delivers a modest CO2 emissions reduction to 2050. The carbon pricing and demonstration project policies are found to work in a complementary way that greatly increases the effect of either policy introduced in isolation.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: The diffusion of wind propulsion technologies in shipping: an agent-based model
Event: IST 2018, 9th International Sustainability Transitions Conference, 12 - 14 June 2018, Manchester, UK
Location: Manchester, UK.
Dates: 11 June 2018 - 13 June 2018
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://transitionsnetwork.org/past-ist-conference...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10055040
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