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The low carbon transition in the UK building sector must make financial sense: a hybrid system dynamics bottom up modelling framework

Papachristos, G; (2018) The low carbon transition in the UK building sector must make financial sense: a hybrid system dynamics bottom up modelling framework. In: (Proceedings) ISDC 2018, 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 6-10 August 2018, Reykjavík, Iceland. System Dynamics Society (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

The building sector contributes significantly to global energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It is urgent to reduce them through the retrofit of existing buildings and improved new building designs. The investments for energy saving retrofits in public and private sector buildings must make financial sense and have an attractive return on investment. The diffusion of related energy performance contracts is instrumental in improving the performance of the building stock. This paper develops a hybrid bottom up and system dynamics modelling framework to assess the energy savings potential and related changes in Indoor Environmental Quality of building archetypes that are representative of the total office stock. The bottom up modelling is used to provide estimates of potential energy savings. This serves as input to the system dynamics diffusion model which is developed to assess the diffusion potential of environmental performance contracts. The framework will provide the basis for scenario and policy analysis.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: The low carbon transition in the UK building sector must make financial sense: a hybrid system dynamics bottom up modelling framework
Event: ISDC 2018, 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 6-10 August 2018, Reykjavík, Iceland
Location: Reykjavik
Dates: 06 August 2018 - 10 August 2018
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.systemdynamics.org/past-conferences
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: energy performance contracts, diffusion, low-carbon transition
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10055019
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