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Simulation Modeling and Metamodeling to Inform National and International HIV Policies for Children and Adolescents

Ciaranello, A; Sohn, AH; Collins, IJ; Rothery, C; Abrams, EJ; Woods, B; Pei, P; ... Mahy, M; + view all (2018) Simulation Modeling and Metamodeling to Inform National and International HIV Policies for Children and Adolescents. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes , 78 (1) S49-S57. 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001749. Green open access

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Abstract

Objective and Approach: Computer-based simulation models serve an important purpose in informing HIV care for children and adolescents. We review current model-based approaches to informing pediatric and adolescent HIV estimates and guidelines. // Findings: Clinical disease simulation models and epidemiologic models are used to inform global and regional estimates of numbers of children and adolescents living with HIV and in need of antiretroviral therapy, to develop normative guidelines addressing strategies for diagnosis and treatment of HIV in children, and to forecast future need for pediatric and adolescent antiretroviral therapy formulations and commodities. To improve current model-generated estimates and policy recommendations, better country-level and regional-level data are needed about children living with HIV, as are improved data about survival and treatment outcomes for children with perinatal HIV infection as they age into adolescence and adulthood. In addition, novel metamodeling and value of information methods are being developed to improve the transparency of model methods and results, as well as to allow users to more easily tailor model-based analyses to their own settings. // Conclusions: Substantial progress has been made in using models to estimate the size of the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic, to inform the development of guidelines for children and adolescents affected by HIV, and to support targeted implementation of policy recommendations to maximize impact. Ongoing work will address key limitations and further improve these model-based projections.

Type: Article
Title: Simulation Modeling and Metamodeling to Inform National and International HIV Policies for Children and Adolescents
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001749
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000001749
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/legalcode).
Keywords: pediatric, adolescent, HIV, model, metamodel, guidelines
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10052304
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