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Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives

Grainger, MJ; Aramyan, L; Piras, S; Quested, TE; Righi, S; Setti, M; Vittuari, M; (2018) Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives. PLoS One , 13 (2) , Article e0192075. 10.1371/journal.pone.0192075. Green open access

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Abstract

Food waste from households contributes the greatest proportion to total food waste in developed countries. Therefore, food waste reduction requires an understanding of the socio-economic (contextual and behavioural) factors that lead to its generation within the household. Addressing such a complex subject calls for sound methodological approaches that until now have been conditioned by the large number of factors involved in waste generation, by the lack of a recognised definition, and by limited available data. This work contributes to food waste generation literature by using one of the largest available datasets that includes data on the objective amount of avoidable household food waste, along with information on a series of socio-economic factors. In order to address one aspect of the complexity of the problem, machine learning algorithms (random forests and boruta) for variable selection integrated with linear modelling, model selection and averaging are implemented. Model selection addresses model structural uncertainty, which is not routinely considered in assessments of food waste in literature. The main drivers of food waste in the home selected in the most parsimonious models include household size, the presence of fussy eaters, employment status, home ownership status, and the local authority. Results, regardless of which variable set the models are run on, point toward large households as being a key target element for food waste reduction interventions.

Type: Article
Title: Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192075
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192075
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2018 Grainger et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Family Characteristics, Food, Garbage, Models, Theoretical, Probability, United Kingdom
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10051698
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