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The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft

Dray, LM; Schäfer, AW; Al Zayat, K; (2018) The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 10.1177/0361198118787361. Green open access

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Abstract

We analyze the costs of CO2 emissions mitigation measures available to aviation using a global aviation systems model. In that context, we discuss the relationship between mitigation potential and scenario characteristics, and how these interact with policy measures that increase the effective price of fuel, for example, ICAO’s CORSIA emissions offset scheme. We find that global fuel lifecycle CO2 emissions per revenue passenger km could be reduced by 1.9% to 3.0% per year on average by the use of a combination of cost-effective measures, for oil prices which reach $75 to $185 per barrel by 2050. Smaller additional emissions reductions, of the order of 0.1% per year, are possible if carbon prices of $50 to $150/tCO2 are assumed by 2050. These outcomes strongly depend on assumptions about biofuels, which account for about half of the reduction potential by 2050. Absolute reductions in emissions are limited by the relative lack of mitigation options for long-haul flights, coupled with strong demand growth.

Type: Article
Title: The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0361198118787361
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118787361
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10049085
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