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Modelling and Projecting the Response of Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide to Land Use and Related Pressures: The PREDICTS Project

Purvis, A; Newbold, T; De Palma, A; Contu, S; Hill, SLL; Sanchez-Ortiz, K; Phillips, HRP; ... Scharlemann, JPW; + view all (2018) Modelling and Projecting the Response of Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide to Land Use and Related Pressures: The PREDICTS Project. Advances in Ecological Research , 58 pp. 201-241. 10.1016/bs.aecr.2017.12.003.

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Abstract

The PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) has collated ecological survey data from hundreds of published biodiversity comparisons of sites facing different land-use and related pressures, and used the resulting taxonomically and geographically broad database (abundance and occurrence data for over 50,000 species and over 30,000 sites in nearly 100 countries) to develop global biodiversity models, indicators, and projections. After outlining the science and science-policy gaps that motivated PREDICTS, this review discusses the key design decisions that helped it to achieve its objectives. In particular, we discuss basing models on a large, taxonomically, and geographically representative database, so that they may be applicable to biodiversity more broadly; space-for-time substitution, which allows estimation of pressure-state models without the need for representative time-series data; and collation of raw data rather than statistical results, greatly expanding the range of response variables that can be modelled. The heterogeneity of data in the PREDICTS database has presented a range of modelling challenges: we discuss these with a focus on our implementation of the Biodiversity Intactness Index, an indicator with considerable policy potential but which had not previously been estimated from primary biodiversity data. We then summarise the findings from analyses of how land use and related pressures affect local (α) diversity and spatial turnover (β diversity), and how these effects are mediated by ecological attributes of species. We discuss the relevance of our findings for policy, before ending with some directions of ongoing and possible future research.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling and Projecting the Response of Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide to Land Use and Related Pressures: The PREDICTS Project
DOI: 10.1016/bs.aecr.2017.12.003
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/bs.aecr.2017.12.003
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Biodiversity intactness index, Alpha diversity, Beta diversity, Biodiversity indicators, Biodiversity models, Hockey-stick graph, Representativeness, Meta-analysis
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10044160
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