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Development of a pediatric ebola predictive score, Sierra Leone

Fitzgerald, F; Wing, K; Naveed, A; Gbessay, M; Ross, JCG; Checchi, F; Youkee, D; ... Yeung, S; + view all (2018) Development of a pediatric ebola predictive score, Sierra Leone. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 24 (2) pp. 311-319. 10.3201/eid2402.171018. Green open access

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Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictive (PEP) score. We collected data on all children < 13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

Type: Article
Title: Development of a pediatric ebola predictive score, Sierra Leone
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3201/eid2402.171018
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights Reserved. Emerging Infectious Diseases is published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a U.S. Government agency. Therefore, materials published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, including text, figures, tables, and photographs are in the public domain and can be reprinted or used without permission with proper citation.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Infection, Immunity and Inflammation Dept
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10042485
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