When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility

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When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility

Jenkins, S; Harris, AJL; Lark, RM; (2019) When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility. Journal of Risk Research , 22 (5) pp. 537-554. 10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415. Green open access

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Abstract

The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, reflecting a misunderstanding of the nature of uncertainty. Such misunderstandings could have ramifications for the subsequent (perceived) credibility of the communicator who made such a prediction. We examine whether the effect of ‘erroneous’ predictions on perceived credibility differs according to the communication format used. Specifically, we consider verbal, numerical (point and range [wide/narrow]) and mixed format probability expressions. We consistently find that subsequent perceptions are least affected by the ‘erroneous’ prediction when it is expressed numerically, regardless of whether it is a point or range estimate. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications regarding ‘unlikely’ events, wherever possible.

Type:	Article
Title:	When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility
Open access status:	An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI:	10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415
Publisher version:	https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415
Language:	English
Additional information:	This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords:	Verbal probability expressions, numerical probabilities, risk communication, trust, expertise, credibility
UCL classification:	UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI:	https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10042295