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Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets

Viner, R; Ward, JL; Wolfe, I; (2018) Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets. Archives of Disease in Childhood , 103 (5) pp. 474-479. 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184. Green open access

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Abstract

Background: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement. / Methods: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0–19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. / Results: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1–4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1–4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1–4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1–4 years and 15–19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented. / Discussion: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

Type: Article
Title: Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10041377
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