UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

'Unlikely' outcomes might never occur, but what about 'unlikely (20% chance)' outcomes?

Jenkins, S; Harris, AJL; Lark, RM; (2016) 'Unlikely' outcomes might never occur, but what about 'unlikely (20% chance)' outcomes? In: Papafragou, D and Grodner, D and Mirman, D and Trueswell, JC, (eds.) Program: CogSci 2016: 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. (pp. pp. 390-395). Cognitive Science Society: Philadelphia, PA, USA. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Jenkins10_5.pdf - Accepted version

Download (367kB) | Preview

Abstract

A commonly suggested solution to reduce misinterpretations of verbal probability expressions in risk communications is to use a verbal-numerical (mixed format) approach, but it is not known whether this increases understanding over and above a purely numerical format. Using the ‘which outcome’ methodology (Teigen & Filkuková, 2013), we examined the effect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication formats, as well as investigating whether marking outcomes as salient would alter the outcomes people perceived as ‘unlikely’ or having a 20% chance of occurring. We observed no effect of saliency, but replicated previous findings, with general preference for values at the high end of a distribution (including maximum/above maximum values) present in both verbal and mixed communication formats. This demonstrates the relevance of these findings for real-world consequential risk communication. Whilst the estimates differed between the mixed and numerical formats, we fou

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: 'Unlikely' outcomes might never occur, but what about 'unlikely (20% chance)' outcomes?
Event: 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2016)
Location: Philadelphia, USA
Dates: 10 August 2016 - 13 August 2016
ISBN-13: 9780991196739
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2016/
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: verbal probability expressions; numerical probabilities; risk communication; geological hazards
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10039459
Downloads since deposit
32Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item