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Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting

Thanos, S; Kamargianni, M; Schäfer, A; (2017) Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting. Transportation Science , 52 (3) pp. 621-636. 10.1287/trsc.2017.0789. Green open access

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Abstract

A novel analysis framework for the spatial aspects of car travel, measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT), is introduced in this paper. The specification of a dynamic spatial Durbin model enables the analysis of VMT spatial spillovers and diffusion between neighboring areas in the short and long run. The framework is further developed to capture and introduce to a spatial setting potential asymmetry and hysteresis that can reflect reference dependence and habits. A panel data set is compiled at the subregional level, based on official car mileage recordings in England and Wales. In addition to the inelastic long-run responses of VMT to fuel price (−0.124) and income (0.116) changes, the results illustrate asymmetries and hysteresis in price elasticities with a significant spatial component. The impact magnitude on VMT from a number of factors, such as alternative fuel use, fuel deserts in rural areas, and road network and car fleet characteristics, is also estimated. The results are consistent with the car use saturation hypothesis through the positive impact of motorization rate to VMT. The negative effect of public transport infrastructure on car travel is only significant in the spatial models. The paper demonstrates the applicability and importance of spatial econometrics in transport research.

Type: Article
Title: Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2017.0789
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2017.0789
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Spatial econometrics; price elasticity asymmetries; vehicle miles traveled
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10037795
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