Thompson, JR;
Crawley, A;
Kingston, DG;
(2017)
Future river flows and flood extent in the Upper Niger and Inner Niger Delta: GCM-related uncertainty using the CMIP5 ensemble.
Hydrological Sciences Journal
, 62
(14)
pp. 2239-2265.
10.1080/02626667.2017.1383608.
Preview |
Text
Thompson_Future river flows and flood extent in the Upper Niger.pdf - Published Version Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of sub-catchment–GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from −6136 km 2 (−43%) to +987 km 2 (+7%) for the 2050s and −6176 km 2 (−43%) to +1165 km 2 (+8.2%) for the 2080s.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Future river flows and flood extent in the Upper Niger and Inner Niger Delta: GCM-related uncertainty using the CMIP5 ensemble |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1080/02626667.2017.1383608 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1383608 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | Inner Niger Delta, climate change, uncertainty, hydrological modelling, CMIP5 |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10036653 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
