eprintid: 8815
rev_number: 61
eprint_status: archive
userid: 599
dir: disk0/00/00/88/15
datestamp: 2008-10-09 16:56:24
lastmod: 2021-11-27 00:10:10
status_changed: 2012-08-28 15:32:32
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Kilburn, CRJ
creators_name: Sammonds, PR
title: Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions
ispublished: pub
subjects: 10600
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C06
divisions: F57
keywords: Silicic magma chambers, Precursor
note: Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union
abstract: Accelerations in seismicity are important precursors to eruptions at volcanoes reawakening after extended repose intervals. These have previously been quantified for subduction-zone settings in terms of the linkage of crustal faults by shearing. Introducing a damage-mechanics criterion for the weakening of rock between major fractures, the model is here modified for failure in tension, consistent with conditions in crust surrounding a pressurized magma reservoir. The results indicate that final accelerations develop over similar to 2-3 weeks at tensile strains of (4.5 +/- 3.2)x10(-3). Since a week or more is required to identify an accelerating trend, seismic forecasts of eruptions after long repose are unlikely to be reliable more than days in advance. Improvements will require the integration of additional precursors or extension of the model to earlier stages of fracture growth in stressed crust.
date: 2005-12-29
date_type: published
publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024184
vfaculties: VMPS
rae2008: 17
oa_status: green
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
article_type_text: Article
verified: verified_batch
elements_source: Web of Science
elements_id: 64294
doi: 10.1029/2005GL024184
lyricists_name: Kilburn, Christopher
lyricists_name: Sammonds, Peter
lyricists_id: CRJKI33
lyricists_id: PRSAM22
full_text_status: public
publication: Geophysical Research Letters
volume: 32
number: 24
article_number: L24313
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0094-8276
citation:        Kilburn, CRJ;    Sammonds, PR;      (2005)    Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions.                   Geophysical Research Letters , 32  (24)    , Article L24313.  10.1029/2005GL024184 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024184>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/8815/1/2005GL024184.pdf