eprintid: 66835 rev_number: 49 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/00/06/68/35 datestamp: 2010-10-16 21:58:59 lastmod: 2021-10-27 22:49:23 status_changed: 2012-08-13 16:12:39 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Saunders, MA creators_name: Harris, AR title: Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C06 divisions: F63 keywords: Quasi-biennial oscillation, Surface-temperature, Tropical cyclones, Circulation note: Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union abstract: Tropical cyclones rank above earthquakes as the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property (Bryant, 1991; Houghton, 1994). In the United States alone, the damage bill from mainland landfalling hurricanes over the last 50 years averages $2.0 billion per year (Hebert et al., 1996). Years with high numbers of hurricanes provide new insight on the environmental factors influencing interannual variability; hence the interest in the exceptional 1995 Atlantic season which saw 11 hurricanes and a total of 19 tropical storms, double the 50-year average. While most environmental factors in 1995 were favourable for tropical cyclone development, we show that a factor not fully explored before, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the most significant. For the 10 degrees-20 degrees N, 20 degrees-60 degrees W region where 93% of the anomalous 1995 hurricanes developed, similar to 45 year statistical regressions show that SST is the dominating influence, independent of all known other factors, behind the interannual variance in Atlantic hurricance numbers. With this SST experiencing record warm levels in 1995, 0.66 degrees C above the 1946-1995 mean, these regressions indicate that sea warming explains 61+/-34% of the anomalous hurricane activity in 1995 to 95% confidence. date: 1997-05-15 publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97GL01164 vfaculties: VMPS oa_status: green language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green article_type_text: Article verified: verified_batch elements_source: Web of Science elements_id: 46184 doi: 10.1029/97GL01164 language_elements: EN lyricists_name: Saunders, Mark lyricists_id: MASAU70 full_text_status: public publication: Geophysical Research Letters volume: 24 number: 10 pagerange: 1255 - 1258 issn: 0094-8276 citation: Saunders, MA; Harris, AR; (1997) Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming. Geophysical Research Letters , 24 (10) 1255 - 1258. 10.1029/97GL01164 <https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL01164>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/66835/1/97GL01164.pdf