eprintid: 66835
rev_number: 49
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/00/06/68/35
datestamp: 2010-10-16 21:58:59
lastmod: 2021-10-27 22:49:23
status_changed: 2012-08-13 16:12:39
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Saunders, MA
creators_name: Harris, AR
title: Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C06
divisions: F63
keywords: Quasi-biennial oscillation, Surface-temperature, Tropical cyclones, Circulation
note: Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union
abstract: Tropical cyclones rank above earthquakes as the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property (Bryant, 1991; Houghton, 1994). In the United States alone, the damage bill from mainland landfalling hurricanes over the last 50 years averages $2.0 billion per year (Hebert et al., 1996). Years with high numbers of hurricanes provide new insight on the environmental factors influencing interannual variability; hence the interest in the exceptional 1995 Atlantic season which saw 11 hurricanes and a total of 19 tropical storms, double the 50-year average. While most environmental factors in 1995 were favourable for tropical cyclone development, we show that a factor not fully explored before, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the most significant. For the 10 degrees-20 degrees N, 20 degrees-60 degrees W region where 93% of the anomalous 1995 hurricanes developed, similar to 45 year statistical regressions show that SST is the dominating influence, independent of all known other factors, behind the interannual variance in Atlantic hurricance numbers. With this SST experiencing record warm levels in 1995, 0.66 degrees C above the 1946-1995 mean, these regressions indicate that sea warming explains 61+/-34% of the anomalous hurricane activity in 1995 to 95% confidence.
date: 1997-05-15
publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97GL01164
vfaculties: VMPS
oa_status: green
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
article_type_text: Article
verified: verified_batch
elements_source: Web of Science
elements_id: 46184
doi: 10.1029/97GL01164
language_elements: EN
lyricists_name: Saunders, Mark
lyricists_id: MASAU70
full_text_status: public
publication: Geophysical Research Letters
volume: 24
number: 10
pagerange: 1255 - 1258
issn: 0094-8276
citation:        Saunders, MA;    Harris, AR;      (1997)    Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming.                   Geophysical Research Letters , 24  (10)   1255 - 1258.    10.1029/97GL01164 <https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL01164>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/66835/1/97GL01164.pdf