?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Updating+the+UK%E2%80%99s+code+for+fiscal+stability&rft.creator=Emmerson%2C+C.&rft.creator=Frayne%2C+C.&rft.creator=Love%2C+S.&rft.description=The+1998+Code+for+Fiscal+Stability+sets+out+the+framework+within%0D%0Awhich+UK+fiscal+policy+is+now+set.+While+having+such+a+code+does%0D%0Anot+make+it+easier+for+a+Government+to+meet+its+fiscal+objectives%2C+it%0D%0Amay+improve+the+economic+credibility+of+the+policy+process.+To+date%0D%0Athe+Code+has+generally+worked+well%2C+and+in+any+case+many+of+the%0D%0ATreasury%E2%80%99s+practices+exceed+the+minimum+requirements+of+the+Code.%0D%0AHowever%2C+improvements+could+be+made+in+the+light+of+recent%0D%0Aexperiences.+In+particular+it+would+be+preferable+for+less+emphasis+to%0D%0Abe+placed+on+the+precise+forecasts+for+fiscal+aggregates+and+greater%0D%0Aemphasis+to+be+placed+on+the+magnitude+of+the+risks+to+those%0D%0Aforecasts.+Using+the+projections+contained+in+the+March+2004%0D%0ABudget%2C+and+information+on+the+size+of+errors+made+in+the+past%2C+we%0D%0Aestimate+that+there+is+now+a+60%25+chance+that+the+Chancellor%E2%80%99s%0D%0A%E2%80%9Cgolden+rule%E2%80%9D+will+be+met+without+further+tax+increases+or+spending%0D%0Acuts.+This+compares+to+74%25+for+the+forecast+made+by+the+Treasury%0D%0A12+months+earlier.+As+well+as+clarifying+how+cautious+forecasts+are%2C%0D%0Athe+uncertainty+surrounding+projections+for+fiscal+aggregates+also%0D%0Ahas+implications+for+the+way+in+which+progress+towards+any+fiscal%0D%0Arules+should+be+interpreted.&rft.subject=JEL+classification%3A+E62%2C+H62&rft.publisher=Institute+for+Fiscal+Studies&rft.date=2004-11&rft.type=Working+%2F+discussion+paper&rft.language=eng&rft.source=++++(IFS+Working+Papers++W04%2F29).+Institute+for+Fiscal+Studies%3A+London%2C+UK.+(2004)+++++&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscovery.ucl.ac.uk%2Fid%2Feprint%2F2853%2F1%2F2853.pdf&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscovery.ucl.ac.uk%2Fid%2Feprint%2F2853%2F&rft.rights=open