eprintid: 158379
rev_number: 33
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/00/15/83/79
datestamp: 2010-10-30 21:56:33
lastmod: 2020-02-12 15:51:45
status_changed: 2010-10-30 21:56:33
type: working_paper
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Batty, M
creators_name: Torrens, P
title: Modeling complexity: the limits to prediction
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: A01
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F40
keywords: complexity, PREDICTION
note: Imported via OAI, 16:54:26 4th May 2005
abstract: A working definition of a complex system is of an entity which is coherent in some recognizable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures admitting surprise and novelty which cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are therefore more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models represent simplifications of a system in which salient parts and processes are simulated and given this definition, many models will exist of any particular complex system. In this paper, we explore the impact of complexity in validating models of such systems. We begin with definitions of complexity, complex systems, and models thereof. We identify the key issues as being concerned with the characterization of system equilibrium, system environment, and the way systems and their elements extend and scale. As our perspective on these issues changes, then so do our models and this has implications for their testing and validation. We develop these, introducing changes in the meaning of validity posed by the use to which such models are to be put in terms of their users. We draw these ideas together as conclusions about the limits posed to prediction in complex systems. We illustrate our arguments using various examples from the field of urban systems theory and urban science.
date: 2001-10
publisher: Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
official_url: http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/casa/pdf/paper36.pdf
vfaculties: VBEF
oa_status: green
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
elements_source: Manually entered
elements_id: 49991
lyricists_name: Batty, John
lyricists_id: JMBAT23
full_text_status: public
series: CASA Working Papers
number: 36
place_of_pub: London, UK
pages: 37
issn: 1467-1298
citation:        Batty, M;    Torrens, P;      (2001)    Modeling complexity: the limits to prediction.                    (CASA Working Papers  36). Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis: London, UK.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/158379/1/paper36.pdf