eprintid: 1544033 rev_number: 29 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/01/54/40/33 datestamp: 2017-03-07 12:22:45 lastmod: 2021-10-15 22:56:35 status_changed: 2017-03-07 12:22:45 type: proceedings_section metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Williams, D creators_name: Haworth, J creators_name: Cheng, T title: Predicting public confidence in the police with spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modelling. ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F44 keywords: Spatiotemporal, Bayesian hierarchical model, public confidence, policing, prediction abstract: Public confidence in the police is crucial to effective policing. Estimating and predicting public confidence at the local level will better enable the police to conduct proactive confidence interventions to meet the concerns of the community. This work represents the first application of Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling to estimation and prediction of public confidence in the police at the local level. Three models of increasing spatiotemporal complexity were fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using free software package WinBUGS. Public confidence was successfully predicted at the local level using a spatiotemporal model with an inseparable interaction structure. date: 2016-04-01 date_type: published publisher: GIS Research UK (GISRUK) official_url: http://www.gre.ac.uk/ach/services/events/gisruk2016/home oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1212456 lyricists_name: Cheng, Tao lyricists_name: Haworth, James lyricists_id: TCHEN23 lyricists_id: JHAWO13 actors_name: Cheng, Tao actors_name: Laslett, David actors_id: TCHEN23 actors_id: DLASL34 actors_role: owner actors_role: impersonator full_text_status: public series: GIS Research UK (GISRUK) Conference volume: 24 place_of_pub: London, UK event_title: The 24th GIS Research UK (GISRUK) Conference (GISRUK2016) event_location: London, UK event_dates: 30 March 2017 - 01 April 2017 institution: GISRUK2016 book_title: Proceedings of the 24th GIS Research UK (GISRUK) Conference citation: Williams, D; Haworth, J; Cheng, T; (2016) Predicting public confidence in the police with spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modelling. In: Proceedings of the 24th GIS Research UK (GISRUK) Conference. GIS Research UK (GISRUK): London, UK. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1544033/1/Cheng_GISRUK_2016_paper_39%20Dawn.pdf