%0 Generic
%A Williams, D
%A Haworth, J
%A Cheng, T
%C London, UK
%D 2016
%F discovery:1544033
%I GIS Research UK (GISRUK)
%K Spatiotemporal, Bayesian hierarchical model, public confidence, policing, prediction
%T Predicting public confidence in the police with spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modelling.
%U https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1544033/
%V 24
%X Public confidence in the police is crucial to effective policing. Estimating and predicting public  confidence at the local level will better enable the police to conduct proactive confidence interventions  to meet the concerns of the community. This work represents the first application of Bayesian spatiotemporal  modelling to estimation and prediction of public confidence in the police at the local level.  Three models of increasing spatiotemporal complexity were fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo  simulation using free software package WinBUGS. Public confidence was successfully predicted at the  local level using a spatiotemporal model with an inseparable interaction structure.