eprintid: 151471 rev_number: 65 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/00/15/14/71 datestamp: 2010-10-29 08:56:16 lastmod: 2021-09-19 23:08:27 status_changed: 2012-09-04 09:47:16 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Kingston, DG creators_name: Todd, MC creators_name: Taylor, RG creators_name: Thompson, JR creators_name: Arnell, NW title: Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B03 divisions: C03 divisions: F26 keywords: Water-balance, Model, Evaporation note: Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union abstract: 21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 degrees C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability. Citation: Kingston, D. G., M. C. Todd, R. G. Taylor, J. R. Thompson, and N. W. Arnell (2009), Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267. date: 2009-10-31 publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040267 vfaculties: VSHS oa_status: green language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green article_type_text: Article verified: verified_batch elements_source: Web of Science elements_id: 120579 doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267 language_elements: EN lyricists_name: Taylor, Richard lyricists_name: Thompson, Julian lyricists_id: RTAYL91 lyricists_id: JRTHO32 full_text_status: public publication: Geophysical Research Letters volume: 36 article_number: L20403 issn: 0094-8276 citation: Kingston, DG; Todd, MC; Taylor, RG; Thompson, JR; Arnell, NW; (2009) Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters , 36 , Article L20403. 10.1029/2009GL040267 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040267>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/151471/1/2009GL040267.pdf