eprintid: 151471
rev_number: 65
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/00/15/14/71
datestamp: 2010-10-29 08:56:16
lastmod: 2021-09-19 23:08:27
status_changed: 2012-09-04 09:47:16
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Kingston, DG
creators_name: Todd, MC
creators_name: Taylor, RG
creators_name: Thompson, JR
creators_name: Arnell, NW
title: Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B03
divisions: C03
divisions: F26
keywords: Water-balance, Model, Evaporation
note: Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union
abstract: 21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 degrees C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability. Citation: Kingston, D. G., M. C. Todd, R. G. Taylor, J. R. Thompson, and N. W. Arnell (2009), Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267.
date: 2009-10-31
publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040267
vfaculties: VSHS
oa_status: green
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
article_type_text: Article
verified: verified_batch
elements_source: Web of Science
elements_id: 120579
doi: 10.1029/2009GL040267
language_elements: EN
lyricists_name: Taylor, Richard
lyricists_name: Thompson, Julian
lyricists_id: RTAYL91
lyricists_id: JRTHO32
full_text_status: public
publication: Geophysical Research Letters
volume: 36
article_number: L20403
issn: 0094-8276
citation:        Kingston, DG;    Todd, MC;    Taylor, RG;    Thompson, JR;    Arnell, NW;      (2009)    Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.                   Geophysical Research Letters , 36     , Article L20403.  10.1029/2009GL040267 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040267>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/151471/1/2009GL040267.pdf