?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Staying+afloat+on+Neurath's+boat+-+Heuristics+for+sequential+causal+learning&rft.creator=Bramley%2C+N&rft.creator=Dayan%2C+P&rft.creator=Lagnado%2C+DA&rft.description=Causal+models+are+key+to+flexible+and+efficient+exploitation+of+the+environment.+However%2C+learning+causal+structure+is+hard%2C+with+massive+spaces+of+possible+models%2C+hard-to-compute+marginals+and+the+need+to+integrate+diverse+evidence+over+many+instances.+We+report+on+two+experiments+in+which+participants+learnt+about+probabilistic+causal+systems+involving+three+and%0D%0Afour+variables+from+sequences+of+interventions.+Participants+were+broadly+successful%2C+albeit+exhibiting+sequential+dependence+and+floundering+under+high+background+noise.+We+capture+their+behavior+with+a+simple+model%2C+based+on+the+%E2%80%9CNeurath%E2%80%99s+ship%E2%80%9D+metaphor+for+scientific+progress%2C+that+neither+maintains+a+probability+distribution%2C+nor+computes+exact+likelihoods.&rft.publisher=Cognitive+Science+Society&rft.contributor=Noelle%2C+DC&rft.contributor=Dale%2C+R&rft.contributor=Warlaumont%2C+AS&rft.contributor=Yoshimi%2C+J&rft.contributor=Matlock%2C+T&rft.contributor=Jennings%2C+CD&rft.contributor=Maglio%2C+PP&rft.date=2015-07-25&rft.type=Proceedings+paper&rft.language=eng&rft.source=+++++In%3A+Noelle%2C+DC+and+Dale%2C+R+and+Warlaumont%2C+AS+and+Yoshimi%2C+J+and+Matlock%2C+T+and+Jennings%2C+CD+and+Maglio%2C+PP%2C+(eds.)+Proceedings+of+Annual+Meeting+of+the+Cognitive+Science+Society+(CogSci+2015)%3A+Mind%2C+Technology%2C+and+Society.++++Cognitive+Science+Society%3A+Pasadena%2C+California%2C+United+States.+(2015)+++++&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscovery.ucl.ac.uk%2Fid%2Feprint%2F1501877%2F1%2FBramley_Staying_afloat_Neuraths_ship.pdf&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscovery.ucl.ac.uk%2Fid%2Feprint%2F1501877%2F&rft.rights=open