eprintid: 1457125
rev_number: 45
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/01/45/71/25
datestamp: 2015-03-18 12:19:02
lastmod: 2021-09-19 23:32:23
status_changed: 2017-03-23 15:28:47
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Ball, F
creators_name: Britton, T
creators_name: House, T
creators_name: Isham, V
creators_name: Mollison, D
creators_name: Pellis, L
creators_name: Scalia Tomba, G
title: Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C06
divisions: F61
keywords: Metapopulations; Large sub-populations; Households
note: © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
abstract: This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models.
date: 2015-03
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.001
vfaculties: VMPS
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_source: crossref
elements_id: 996178
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.001
lyricists_name: Isham, Valerie
lyricists_id: VSISH67
full_text_status: public
publication: Epidemics
volume: 10
pagerange: 63-67
issn: 1755-4365
citation:        Ball, F;    Britton, T;    House, T;    Isham, V;    Mollison, D;    Pellis, L;    Scalia Tomba, G;      (2015)    Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models.                   Epidemics , 10    pp. 63-67.    10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.001 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.001>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1457125/3/1-s2.0-S175543651400036X-main.pdf