eprintid: 1392418
rev_number: 30
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/01/39/24/18
datestamp: 2013-05-06 19:29:16
lastmod: 2021-09-19 22:18:04
status_changed: 2013-05-06 19:29:16
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Gale, EL
creators_name: Saunders, MA
title: The 2011 Thailand flood: climate causes and return periods
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C06
divisions: F63
note: © 2013 The Authors. Weather published by
John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal
Meteorological Society
This is an open access article under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits use, distribution and
reproduction in any medium, provided the
original work is properly cited.
abstract: Thailand is one of the wealthiest and most
developed countries in southeast Asia.
However, its tropical location and the influence
of seasonal monsoon rains and local
topography make it prone to floods. The
floods in 2011 were especially severe, causing
estimated losses of US $30 billion (economic;
Swiss Re, 2012) and US $12 billion
(insured; Swiss Re, 2012). The insured loss
ranks easily as the highest-ever worldwide
from a freshwater flood disaster (Swiss Re,
2012). The primary reason for the floods was
record rainfall: over Thailand as a whole,
annual rainfall in 2011 was the highest in the
country’s 61-year precipitation record (Thai
Meteoro logical Department, 2011). In this
article we first review the nature, impacts and
historical ranking of the 2011 Thailand floods.
We then examine the 2011 rainfall totals and
anomalies across Thailand and use these
with other data to discuss the climate causes
for the exceptional rainfall. We then estimate
the rainfall return period for this flooding
event and compare this with satellite-derived
return periods for the 2011 river flow. Finally,
we bring together the different estimated
return periods to provide a firmer assessment
of how likely it is that a flood of the
magnitude of 2011 will happen again.
date: 2013-09
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wea.2133
vfaculties: VMPS
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_source: WoS-Lite
elements_id: 868560
doi: 10.1002/wea.2133
lyricists_name: Saunders, Mark
lyricists_id: MASAU70
full_text_status: public
publication: WEATHER
volume: 68
number: 9
pagerange: 233 - 237
issn: 0043-1656
citation:        Gale, EL;    Saunders, MA;      (2013)    The 2011 Thailand flood: climate causes and return periods.                   WEATHER , 68  (9)   233 - 237.    10.1002/wea.2133 <https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2133>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1392418/1/wea2133.pdf