eprintid: 1383526 rev_number: 20 eprint_status: archive userid: 618 dir: disk0/01/38/35/26 datestamp: 2013-02-15 08:50:30 lastmod: 2015-07-21 02:21:30 status_changed: 2013-02-15 08:50:30 type: thesis metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Lilico, A title: Limited foresight ispublished: unpub divisions: F24 note: Thesis digitised by British Library EThOS. abstract: This thesis is about multi-period problems in which the decision-maker or players cannot see far enough ahead to solve the problem completely. The thesis considers why it might be that players reason forwards at all, let alone reasoning forwards only finitely far. It shows, using finite automata, that there is a class of problems for which forwards reasoning is more efficient than backwards reasoning. It goes on to use these finite automata to solve for an optimal foresight length. It then discusses solution concepts, and applies its preferred solution concept to two problems - one macro problem involving a central banker, and one micro problem concerning the decision whether to smoke. date: 2004 vfaculties: VSHS oa_status: green thesis_class: doctoral_open language: eng thesis_view: UCL_Thesis dart: DART-Europe primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual full_text_status: public pages: 127 institution: University of London department: Economics thesis_type: Doctoral citation: Lilico, A; (2004) Limited foresight. Doctoral thesis , University of London. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1383526/1/407952.pdf