eprintid: 1348504 rev_number: 35 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/01/34/85/04 datestamp: 2012-05-29 18:32:42 lastmod: 2020-06-12 07:21:30 status_changed: 2012-05-29 18:32:42 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Byrne, SPJ creators_name: Dawid, AP title: Retrospective-prospective symmetry in the likelihood and Bayesian analysis of case-control studies ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: A01 divisions: B04 divisions: C06 note: C � 2013 Biometrika Trust. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 16 pages, to appear in Biometrika abstract: Prentice & Pyke (1979) established that the maximum likelihood estimate of an odds-ratio in a case-control study is the same as would be found by running a logistic regression: in other words, for this specific target the incorrect prospective model is inferentially equivalent to the correct retrospective model. Similar results have been obtained for other models, and conditions have also been identified under which the corresponding Bayesian property holds, namely that the posterior distribution of the odds-ratio be the same, whether computed using the prospective or the retrospective likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these results follow directly from certain parameter independence properties of the models and priors, and identify prior laws that support such reverse analysis, for both standard and stratified designs. date: 2014-03 official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/ast050 vfaculties: VMPS oa_status: green full_text_type: pub primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_source: arXiv elements_id: 411609 doi: 10.1093/biomet/ast050 lyricists_name: Byrne, Simon lyricists_id: SBYRN39 full_text_status: public publication: Biometrika (2014) 101 (1), pages 189-204 volume: 101 number: 1 pagerange: 189-204 issn: 0006-3444 citation: Byrne, SPJ; Dawid, AP; (2014) Retrospective-prospective symmetry in the likelihood and Bayesian analysis of case-control studies. Biometrika (2014) 101 (1), pages 189-204 , 101 (1) pp. 189-204. 10.1093/biomet/ast050 <https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet%2Fast050>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1348504/1/Biometrika-2014-Byrne-189-204.pdf