eprintid: 1302477
rev_number: 35
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/01/30/24/77
datestamp: 2011-04-10 20:22:01
lastmod: 2020-02-12 17:35:53
status_changed: 2011-04-10 20:22:01
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Pitcher, AB
creators_name: Johnson, SD
title: Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary
divisions: UCL
divisions: A01
divisions: B04
divisions: C05
divisions: F52
keywords: burglary, mathematical model, repeat victimization, boost hypothesis, risk heterogeneity, agent-based simulation, MULTIPLE VICTIMIZATION, REPEAT, CRIME, PATTERNS, STABILITY, DYNAMICS, BEHAVIOR, OFFENDER, PLACES
abstract: Research concerned with burglary indicates that it is clustered not only at places but also in time. Some homes are victimized repeatedly, and the risk to neighbors of victimized homes is temporarily elevated. The latter type of burglary is referred to as a near repeat. Two theories have been proposed to explain observed patterns. The boost hypothesis states that risk is elevated following an event reflecting offender foraging activity. The flag hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests that time-stable variation in risk provides an explanation where data for populations with different risks are analyzed in the aggregate. To examine this, the authors specify a series of discrete mathematical models of urban residential burglary and examine their outcomes using stochastic agent-based simulations. Results suggest that variation in risk alone cannot explain patterns of exact and near repeats, but that models which also include a boost component show good qualitative agreement with published findings.
date: 2011-02
publisher: SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
vfaculties: VENG
oa_status: green
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
article_type_text: Article
verified: verified_batch
elements_source: Web of Science
elements_id: 274375
doi: 10.1177/0022427810384139
language_elements: EN
lyricists_name: Johnson, Shane
lyricists_id: SJOHN86
full_text_status: public
publication: J RES CRIME DELINQ
volume: 48
number: 1
pagerange: 83 - 109
issn: 0022-4278
citation:        Pitcher, AB;    Johnson, SD;      (2011)    Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary.                   J RES CRIME DELINQ , 48  (1)   83 - 109.    10.1177/0022427810384139 <https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810384139>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1302477/1/Pitcher%2520%2526%2520Johnson%2520%282011%29.pdf