eprintid: 1302477 rev_number: 35 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/01/30/24/77 datestamp: 2011-04-10 20:22:01 lastmod: 2020-02-12 17:35:53 status_changed: 2011-04-10 20:22:01 type: article metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 0 creators_name: Pitcher, AB creators_name: Johnson, SD title: Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary divisions: UCL divisions: A01 divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F52 keywords: burglary, mathematical model, repeat victimization, boost hypothesis, risk heterogeneity, agent-based simulation, MULTIPLE VICTIMIZATION, REPEAT, CRIME, PATTERNS, STABILITY, DYNAMICS, BEHAVIOR, OFFENDER, PLACES abstract: Research concerned with burglary indicates that it is clustered not only at places but also in time. Some homes are victimized repeatedly, and the risk to neighbors of victimized homes is temporarily elevated. The latter type of burglary is referred to as a near repeat. Two theories have been proposed to explain observed patterns. The boost hypothesis states that risk is elevated following an event reflecting offender foraging activity. The flag hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests that time-stable variation in risk provides an explanation where data for populations with different risks are analyzed in the aggregate. To examine this, the authors specify a series of discrete mathematical models of urban residential burglary and examine their outcomes using stochastic agent-based simulations. Results suggest that variation in risk alone cannot explain patterns of exact and near repeats, but that models which also include a boost component show good qualitative agreement with published findings. date: 2011-02 publisher: SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC vfaculties: VENG oa_status: green primo: open primo_central: open_green article_type_text: Article verified: verified_batch elements_source: Web of Science elements_id: 274375 doi: 10.1177/0022427810384139 language_elements: EN lyricists_name: Johnson, Shane lyricists_id: SJOHN86 full_text_status: public publication: J RES CRIME DELINQ volume: 48 number: 1 pagerange: 83 - 109 issn: 0022-4278 citation: Pitcher, AB; Johnson, SD; (2011) Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary. J RES CRIME DELINQ , 48 (1) 83 - 109. 10.1177/0022427810384139 <https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810384139>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1302477/1/Pitcher%2520%2526%2520Johnson%2520%282011%29.pdf