eprintid: 10206651 rev_number: 6 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/20/66/51 datestamp: 2025-03-28 11:52:58 lastmod: 2025-03-28 11:52:58 status_changed: 2025-03-28 11:52:58 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Guerra, Angélica creators_name: Resende, Fernando creators_name: Bergier, Ivan creators_name: Fairbrass, Alison creators_name: Bernardino, Cássio creators_name: Centurião, Daniel Amorim Souza creators_name: Bolzan, Fábio creators_name: Marcel, Guellity creators_name: Rosa, Isabel MD creators_name: da Silva, Julio Cesar Sampaio creators_name: Garcia, Letícia Couto creators_name: Larcher, Letícia creators_name: de Oliveira, Paulo Tarso Sanches creators_name: Chiaravalloti, Rafael Morais creators_name: Roscoe, Renato creators_name: Louzada, Rômullo creators_name: Santos, Sandra creators_name: Tomas, Walfrido Moraes creators_name: Nunes, André Valle creators_name: de Oliveira Roque, Fabio title: Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: B03 divisions: C04 divisions: C03 divisions: F34 divisions: F22 keywords: carbon storage, nutrient retention efficiency, sediment yield, vegetation loss, water quality, wetland note: © 2025 The Author(s). Conservation Science and Practice published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. abstract: The Pantanal, the largest worldwide continuous wetland, is considered a global hotspot of ecosystem services. Based on process‐based modeling, we assessed plausible scenarios of land use for the Brazilian Pantanal wetland and its surrounding highlands by the year 2050. The simulations indicate likely trajectories of land‐use change and the corresponding consequences for ecosystem services by looking specifically at soil loss, sediment yield, water quality, and carbon storage. The “Economy based on sustainable principles” scenario, in which landowners maintain native vegetation above Brazilian law requirements can lead to large reductions in soil losses and sediment yield (45%), whereas an increase in nutrients retention efficiency of soils (2%) and above‐ground carbon storage (7%) compared to the reference scenario of “Business as usual” (BAU). On the other hand, the scenario of “Accelerating anthropogenic changes” might lead to an increase in soil losses (8%) and sediment yield (11%), with a reduction in the efficiency of soil nutrients retention (3%) and carbon storage (15%). This study illustrates that the enhanced awareness of future potential impacts can pave the way for less harmful decisions in the mid‐term, toward the adoption of suitable strategies aligned with sustainable practices. Based on this, we discussed several initiatives that demonstrate the feasibility of moving toward most collective desirable scenarios. date: 2025-03-25 date_type: published publisher: Wiley official_url: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70012 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2374316 doi: 10.1111/csp2.70012 lyricists_name: Chiaravalloti, Rafael lyricists_name: Fairbrass, Alison lyricists_id: CHIAR04 lyricists_id: AFAIR75 actors_name: Chiaravalloti, Rafael actors_id: CHIAR04 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Conservation Science and Practice article_number: e70012 issn: 2578-4854 citation: Guerra, Angélica; Resende, Fernando; Bergier, Ivan; Fairbrass, Alison; Bernardino, Cássio; Centurião, Daniel Amorim Souza; Bolzan, Fábio; ... de Oliveira Roque, Fabio; + view all <#> Guerra, Angélica; Resende, Fernando; Bergier, Ivan; Fairbrass, Alison; Bernardino, Cássio; Centurião, Daniel Amorim Souza; Bolzan, Fábio; Marcel, Guellity; Rosa, Isabel MD; da Silva, Julio Cesar Sampaio; Garcia, Letícia Couto; Larcher, Letícia; de Oliveira, Paulo Tarso Sanches; Chiaravalloti, Rafael Morais; Roscoe, Renato; Louzada, Rômullo; Santos, Sandra; Tomas, Walfrido Moraes; Nunes, André Valle; de Oliveira Roque, Fabio; - view fewer <#> (2025) Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development. Conservation Science and Practice , Article e70012. 10.1111/csp2.70012 <https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70012>. (In press). Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10206651/1/Conservat%20Sci%20and%20Prac%20-%202025%20-%20Guerra%20-%20Land%20use%20and%20regulating%20ecosystem%20services%20scenarios%20for%20the%20Brazilian%20.pdf