TY  - INPR
ID  - discovery10206651
N2  - The Pantanal, the largest worldwide continuous wetland, is considered a global hotspot of ecosystem services. Based on process?based modeling, we assessed plausible scenarios of land use for the Brazilian Pantanal wetland and its surrounding highlands by the year 2050. The simulations indicate likely trajectories of land?use change and the corresponding consequences for ecosystem services by looking specifically at soil loss, sediment yield, water quality, and carbon storage. The ?Economy based on sustainable principles? scenario, in which landowners maintain native vegetation above Brazilian law requirements can lead to large reductions in soil losses and sediment yield (45%), whereas an increase in nutrients retention efficiency of soils (2%) and above?ground carbon storage (7%) compared to the reference scenario of ?Business as usual? (BAU). On the other hand, the scenario of ?Accelerating anthropogenic changes? might lead to an increase in soil losses (8%) and sediment yield (11%), with a reduction in the efficiency of soil nutrients retention (3%) and carbon storage (15%). This study illustrates that the enhanced awareness of future potential impacts can pave the way for less harmful decisions in the mid?term, toward the adoption of suitable strategies aligned with sustainable practices. Based on this, we discussed several initiatives that demonstrate the feasibility of moving toward most collective desirable scenarios.
SN  - 2578-4854
PB  - Wiley
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70012
JF  - Conservation Science and Practice
KW  - carbon storage
KW  -  nutrient retention efficiency
KW  -  sediment yield
KW  -  vegetation loss
KW  -  water quality
KW  -  wetland
A1  - Guerra, Angélica
A1  - Resende, Fernando
A1  - Bergier, Ivan
A1  - Fairbrass, Alison
A1  - Bernardino, Cássio
A1  - Centurião, Daniel Amorim Souza
A1  - Bolzan, Fábio
A1  - Marcel, Guellity
A1  - Rosa, Isabel MD
A1  - da Silva, Julio Cesar Sampaio
A1  - Garcia, Letícia Couto
A1  - Larcher, Letícia
A1  - de Oliveira, Paulo Tarso Sanches
A1  - Chiaravalloti, Rafael Morais
A1  - Roscoe, Renato
A1  - Louzada, Rômullo
A1  - Santos, Sandra
A1  - Tomas, Walfrido Moraes
A1  - Nunes, André Valle
A1  - de Oliveira Roque, Fabio
TI  - Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development
Y1  - 2025/03/25/
AV  - public
N1  - © 2025 The Author(s). Conservation Science and Practice published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.


This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
ER  -