eprintid: 10206563
rev_number: 9
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/20/65/63
datestamp: 2025-03-27 11:45:55
lastmod: 2025-03-27 11:45:55
status_changed: 2025-03-27 11:45:55
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Kim, Seokyoung
creators_name: Dodds, Paul E
creators_name: Butnar, Isabela
title: Economic feasibility of low-carbon ethylene, propylene and jet fuel production
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F34
keywords: Techno-economic analysis, Synthetic fuels, Green ethylene, Fischer-tropsch, Methanol synthesis, Energy systems
note: © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
abstract: Jet fuel and key chemical building blocks (e.g. ethylene) cannot easily be substituted with zero-carbon alternatives and remain interconnected in a low-carbon future. Fischer-Tropsch and methanol synthesis offer pathways toward large-scale production of low-carbon synthetic hydrocarbons. This paper estimates the future costs of low-carbon ethylene, propylene, and jet fuel via those routes with feedstocks of either biomass or electricity with captured CO2. It finds while biobased hydrocarbons could fall below 1.1 USD/kg, electricity-based hydrocarbons using atmospheric CO2, even with the optimistic views, result in 4 USD/kg for ethylene, 2.3 USD/kg for propylene and 2.9 USD/kg for jet fuel. Using industry-captured CO2 as the carbon source could cut production costs by 28 %, but its future availability is likely to be limited. Offsetting existing hydrocarbon industries through direct air carbon capture and storage is projected to be more economical compared to electricity-based hydrocarbons. This research highlights the necessity for transitioning to a net zero power system to reduce electricity prices. As these technologies each produce multiple products and their business cases depend on sales of all products, a coherent cross-sectoral strategy to incentivise low-carbon fuels and chemicals would be valuable to ensure that the overall production reflects demand throughout a low-carbon transition.
date: 2025-07
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2373905
doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648
lyricists_name: Kim, Seokyoung
lyricists_id: SKIMA38
actors_name: Kim, Seokyoung
actors_id: SKIMA38
actors_role: owner
funding_acknowledgements: EP/R513143/1 [EPSRC CASE studentship]; EP/X038963/1 [UK-HyRES: Hub for Research Challenges in Hydrogen and Alternative Liquid Fuels]; NE/V013106/1 [Natural Environment Research Council]
full_text_status: public
publication: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
volume: 216
article_number: 115648
event_location: UK
citation:        Kim, Seokyoung;    Dodds, Paul E;    Butnar, Isabela;      (2025)    Economic feasibility of low-carbon ethylene, propylene and jet fuel production.                   Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 216     , Article 115648.  10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115648>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10206563/3/Kim_Economic%20feasibility%20of%20low-carbon%20ethylene%2C%20propylene%20and%20jet%20fuel%20production_VoR.pdf