eprintid: 10205946 rev_number: 6 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/20/59/46 datestamp: 2025-03-12 15:32:05 lastmod: 2025-03-12 15:32:05 status_changed: 2025-03-12 15:32:05 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Williamson, Joseph creators_name: Lu, Muyang creators_name: Camus, M Florencia creators_name: Gregory, Richard D creators_name: Maclean, Ilya MD creators_name: Rocha, Juan C creators_name: Saastamoinen, Marjo creators_name: Wilson, Robert J creators_name: Bridle, Jon creators_name: Pigot, Alex L title: Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B02 divisions: C08 divisions: D09 divisions: F99 keywords: climate change, global change, biodiversity loss, thermal limit, tipping point, thermal safety margin note: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As the planet rapidly warms, the disruption of ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating the pace and magnitude of biodiversity losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, biodiversity loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because of the non-uniform distribution of biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are the uneven distribution of populations across a species’ thermal niche, or the uneven distribution of thermal niche limits among species within an ecological community, we show that in both cases, the resulting clustering in population warming tolerances drives nonlinear increases in the risk to biodiversity. We discuss how fundamental constraints on species’ physiologies and geographical distributions give rise to clustered warming tolerances, and how population responses to changing climates could variously temper, delay or intensify nonlinear dynamics. We argue that nonlinear increases in risks to biodiversity should be the null expectation under warming, and highlight the empirical research needed to understand the causes, commonness and consequences of clustered warming tolerances to better predict where, when and why nonlinear biodiversity losses will occur. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue ‘Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace’s legacy for a biodiverse future’. date: 2025-01-09 date_type: published publisher: ROYAL SOC official_url: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0321 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2353021 doi: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0321 medium: Print-Electronic lyricists_name: Gregory, Richard lyricists_name: Williamson, Joseph lyricists_name: Bridle, Jonathan lyricists_name: Pigot, Alexander lyricists_name: Camus, Maria lyricists_id: RDGRE91 lyricists_id: JPAWI73 lyricists_id: JBRID88 lyricists_id: ALPIG83 lyricists_id: MFCAM29 actors_name: Williamson, Joseph actors_id: JPAWI73 actors_role: owner funding_acknowledgements: [Natural Environment Research Council] full_text_status: public publication: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume: 380 number: 1917 article_number: 20230321 pages: 16 event_location: England issn: 0962-8436 citation: Williamson, Joseph; Lu, Muyang; Camus, M Florencia; Gregory, Richard D; Maclean, Ilya MD; Rocha, Juan C; Saastamoinen, Marjo; ... Pigot, Alex L; + view all <#> Williamson, Joseph; Lu, Muyang; Camus, M Florencia; Gregory, Richard D; Maclean, Ilya MD; Rocha, Juan C; Saastamoinen, Marjo; Wilson, Robert J; Bridle, Jon; Pigot, Alex L; - view fewer <#> (2025) Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , 380 (1917) , Article 20230321. 10.1098/rstb.2023.0321 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0321>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10205946/1/williamson-et-al-2025-clustered-warming-tolerances-and-the-nonlinear-risks-of-biodiversity-loss-on-a-warming-planet.pdf