eprintid: 10205016 rev_number: 8 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/20/50/16 datestamp: 2025-02-20 11:57:43 lastmod: 2025-02-20 11:59:56 status_changed: 2025-02-20 11:57:43 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Sousa-Pinto, Bernardo creators_name: Neumann, Ignacio creators_name: Vieira, Rafael José creators_name: Bognanni, Antonio creators_name: Marques-Cruz, Manuel creators_name: Gil-Mata, Sara creators_name: Mordue, Simone creators_name: Nevill, Clareece creators_name: Baio, Gianluca creators_name: Whaley, Paul creators_name: Schwarzer, Guido creators_name: Steele, James creators_name: Stewart, Gavin creators_name: Schünemann, Holger J creators_name: Azevedo, Luís Filipe title: Quantitative assessment of inconsistency in meta-analysis using decision thresholds with two new indices ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C06 divisions: F61 keywords: GRADE; Heterogeneity; Inconsistency; Meta-analysis; Systematic review note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Objective: In evidence synthesis, inconsistency is typically assessed visually and with the I2 and the Q statistics. However, these measures have important limitations (i) if there are few primary studies of small sample sizes, or (ii) if there are multiple studies with precise estimates. In addition, with the increasing use of decision thresholds (DT), for example in GRADE Evidence to Decision frameworks, inconsistency judgments can be anchored around DTs. In this article, we developed quantitative measures to assess inconsistency based on DTs. // Study Design and Setting: We developed two measures to quantify inconsistency based on DTs – the Decision Inconsistency (DI) and the Across-Studies Inconsistency (ASI) indices. The DI and the ASI are based on the distribution of the posterior samples studies’ effect sizes across interpretation categories defined by DTs. We developed these indices for the Bayesian context, followed by a frequentist extension. // Results: The DI informs on the overall inconsistency of effect sizes across interpretation categories, while the ASI quantifies how different studies are compared to each other (in relation to interpretation categories) based on absolute effects. A DI≥50% and an ASI≥25% are suggestive of important unexplained inconsistency. We provide an R package (metainc) and a web tool (https://metainc.med.up.pt/) to support the computation of the DI and ASI, including in the context of sensitivity analyses assessing the impact of potential uncertainty in inconsistency. // Conclusion: The DI and the ASI can contribute to quantitatively assess inconsistency, particularly as DTs are gaining recognition in evidence synthesis and health decision-making. date: 2025-02-13 date_type: published publisher: Elsevier BV official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111725 full_text_type: other language: eng verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2362123 doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111725 pii: S0895-4356(25)00058-7 lyricists_name: Baio, Gianluca lyricists_id: GBAIO87 actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette actors_id: BFFLY94 actors_role: owner full_text_status: restricted publication: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology article_number: 111725 event_location: United States issn: 0895-4356 citation: Sousa-Pinto, Bernardo; Neumann, Ignacio; Vieira, Rafael José; Bognanni, Antonio; Marques-Cruz, Manuel; Gil-Mata, Sara; Mordue, Simone; ... Azevedo, Luís Filipe; + view all <#> Sousa-Pinto, Bernardo; Neumann, Ignacio; Vieira, Rafael José; Bognanni, Antonio; Marques-Cruz, Manuel; Gil-Mata, Sara; Mordue, Simone; Nevill, Clareece; Baio, Gianluca; Whaley, Paul; Schwarzer, Guido; Steele, James; Stewart, Gavin; Schünemann, Holger J; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; - view fewer <#> (2025) Quantitative assessment of inconsistency in meta-analysis using decision thresholds with two new indices. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology , Article 111725. 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111725 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111725>. (In press). document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10205016/1/Quantitative%20assessment%20of%20inconsistency%20in%20meta-analysis%20using%20decision%20thresholds%20with%20two%20new%20indices..pdf