eprintid: 10204214
rev_number: 7
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/20/42/14
datestamp: 2025-02-03 09:37:01
lastmod: 2025-02-03 09:37:01
status_changed: 2025-02-03 09:37:01
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Aufiero, S
creators_name: Forer, P
creators_name: Vivo, P
creators_name: Caccioli, F
creators_name: Bartolucci, S
title: Phase transitions in debt recycling
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: F48
keywords: Debt recycling,
Equity release,
Household nance,
Loan-to-value ratio,
Mortgage affordability
note: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
abstract: Debt recycling is an aggressive equity extraction strategy that potentially permits faster repayment of a mortgage. While equity progressively builds up as the mortgage is repaid monthly, mortgage holders may obtain another loan they could use to invest on a risky asset. The wealth produced by a successful investment is then used to repay the mortgage faster. The strategy is riskier than a standard mortgage-repayment plan since fluctuations in the house market and investment's volatility may also lead to a fast default, as both the mortgage and the liquidity loan are secured against the same good. The general conditions of the mortgage holder and the outside market under which debt recycling may be recommended or discouraged have not been fully investigated. In this paper, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of traditional monthly mortgage repayment versus debt recycling strategies, we build a dynamical model of debt recycling and study the time evolution of equity and mortgage balance as a function of loan-to-value ratio, house market performance, and return of the risky investment. We find that the model has a rich behavior as a function of its main parameters, showing strongly and weakly successful phases – where the mortgage is eventually repaid faster and slower than the standard monthly repayment strategy, respectively – a default phase where the equity locked in the house vanishes before the mortgage is repaid, signaling a failure of the debt recycling strategy, and a permanent re-mortgaging phase – where further investment funds from the lender are continuously secured, but the mortgage is never fully repaid. The strategy's effectiveness is found to be highly sensitive to the initial mortgage-to-equity ratio, the monthly amount of scheduled repayments, and the economic parameters at the outset. The analytical results are corroborated with numerical simulations with excellent agreement.
date: 2025-02-01
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105044
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2356604
doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105044
lyricists_name: Bartolucci, Silvia
lyricists_name: Caccioli, Fabio
lyricists_name: Aufiero, Sabrina
lyricists_id: SBART13
lyricists_id: FCACC19
lyricists_id: SAUFI51
actors_name: Bartolucci, Silvia
actors_id: SBART13
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
volume: 171
article_number: 105044
issn: 0165-1889
citation:        Aufiero, S;    Forer, P;    Vivo, P;    Caccioli, F;    Bartolucci, S;      (2025)    Phase transitions in debt recycling.                   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , 171     , Article 105044.  10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105044 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105044>.    (In press).    Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10204214/1/1-s2.0-S0165188925000107-main.pdf