TY  - GEN
Y1  - 2019/02//
PB  - Elsevier
A1  - Walch, Alina
A1  - Castello, Roberto
A1  - Mohajeri, Nahid
A1  - Guignard, Fabian
A1  - Kanevski, Mikhail
A1  - Scartezzini, Jean-Louis
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.219
SP  - 6378
KW  - Hourly solar irradiance; Extreme Learning Machines; Uncertainty; Satellite data
TI  - Spatio-temporal modelling and uncertainty estimation of hourly
global solar irradiance using Extreme Learning Machines
ID  - discovery10200265
SN  - 1876-6102
N1  - This article is available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND license and permits non-commercial use of the work as published, without adaptation or alteration provided the work is fully attributed, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
EP  - 6383
AV  - public
N2  - Solar photovoltaic (PV) is one of the most promising technologies for the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy production. Accurate spatial and temporal modelling of solar irradiance is a key factor in the evaluation of PV technology potential for harvesting solar energy. We present here a data-driven approach based on an ensemble of Extreme Learning Machines using geographic and topographic features in input to predict the global horizontal irradiance in Switzerland from coarse-resolution satellite measurements. This provides a precise mapping of hourly global solar irradiance for each (250 в 250) m2 pixel of a grid covering the entire country. The uncertainty on predicted values is quantified through a variance-based analysis, able to distinguish between model and data uncertainty. The former amounts to 1%, whereas the latter is close to 15% of the predicted values. The presented methodology is scalable and applicable to any large environmental dataset. Our modelling of solar irradiance at hourly temporal resolution and of its uncertainty will allow for an estimate of hourly PV potential in Switzerland to facilitate a more efficient integration of solar photovoltaics into the built environment.
CY  - Amsterdam, The Netherlands
T3  - Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions
ER  -