TY - JOUR N2 - Wildlife tourism plays a crucial role in biodiversity conservation. However, long-term sustainability is difficult to achieve. In this paper, we use property theory to produce a mathematical model that aims to better support stakeholders from the wildlife tourism industry to better guarantee a balance between sightings probability, tourists? overall experience and operators? sharing behaviour. We illustrate our model with the case study of Porto Jofre in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We show that while dealing with low sighting probability, tourist operators must share information about species? locations, leading to a system of open access regarding mobility and information. However, when sightings become common, sharing must be restricted to a bounded group avoiding overcrowding, a system of limited open access. Finally, when the sighting probability is high, no sharing is needed to achieve maximum overall experience. Our case study in Porto Jofre, Pantanal, Brazil, clearly shows these shifts in terms of governance strategies. We show that by looking at sighting probability it is possible to predict the best optimal social strategy that will guarantee long-term sustainability of the wildlife tourism initiatives. We also show the need for external support on adaptation in cases where current strategies do not match the predicted ones. PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-72906-x Y1 - 2024/10/01/ JF - Scientific Reports N1 - Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article?s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article?s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. TI - Limited open information sharing and mobility promotes sustainability of jaguar tourism in Pantanal wetland, Brazil AV - public ID - discovery10198048 VL - 14 SN - 2045-2322 IS - 1 A1 - Tortato, Fernando A1 - Gottesman, Alice A1 - Hoogesteijn, Rafael A1 - Martin, Abigail A1 - Dyble, Mark A1 - Chiaravalloti, Rafael ER -