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<https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10197116> <http://purl.org/dc/terms/title> "Do the kinds of standards applicable in statistical reasoning apply in philosophical reasoning? The example of Simpson’s paradox"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
<https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10197116> <http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/abstract> "My research intersects the philosophy of science and metaphilosophy, with two overarching key aims. First, to investigate the extent to which, how, and when the\r\nkinds of standards we apply in statistical and scientific reasoning apply in instances of case-based philosophical reasoning putatively analogous to controlled scientific experimentation. Second, to discover — in those instances in which those standards do apply — how exactly to meet those standards, so that philosophers executing such reasoning may do better, by their own lights.\r\nThis thesis represents the beginning of my research. In particular, it focusses on the problem of Simpson’s paradox, for which many solutions have been developed, and are frequently deployed, in statistical reasoning.\r\nThe aim of this thesis is twofold. First, to elucidate the relevance of Simpson’s paradox to philosophy. This is by three means: by providing a necessary condition\r\nfor the paradox, by relating it to a collection of other problems of keen philosophical interest, and by proposing solutions to these problems — where available — derived from the tools employed in statistical reasoning. These problems include the problem of base rate neglect, the Monty Hall problem, the Newcomb problem, counterexamples to the Dominance and Sure-Thing Principles, and problems with the ex ante Pareto principle. In each case, I aim to clarify the relationship between Simpson’s paradox and the problem at hand. Additionally, I clarify the relationship between Simpson’s paradox and the more general reference class problem, as well as the relationship between the reference class problem, Bertrand’s paradox, and the problem of (vindicating) induction.\r\nSecond, to propose a condition that any philosopher employing case-based reasoning putatively analogous to controlled scientific experimentation must satisfy in order for her reasoning to be valid. The condition requires such reasoners to do two things.\r\nFirst, to check that their reasoning is not vulnerable to an instance of Simpson’s paradox. Second, if there is a suspected instance of Simpson’s paradox, to handle it by using the appropriate tools developed in statistical reasoning. If these conditions turn out to be difficult to satisfy, then the aspiration that the reasoning is analogous to controlled scientific experimentation may need to be dropped or attenuated."^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
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