eprintid: 10197090 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/19/70/90 datestamp: 2024-09-16 15:08:42 lastmod: 2024-09-16 15:08:42 status_changed: 2024-09-16 15:08:42 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Miano, Andrea creators_name: Ebrahimian, Hossein creators_name: Jalayer, Fatemeh creators_name: Vamvatsikos, Dimitrios creators_name: Prota, Andrea title: Propagation of Modelling Uncertainties for Seismic Risk Assessment: The Effect of Sampling Techniques on Low-Rise Non-Ductile RC Frames ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C06 keywords: Science & Technology, Technology, Physical Sciences, Engineering, Civil, Engineering, Geological, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Engineering, Geology, Epistemic uncertainty, cloud analysis, incremental dynamic analysis, Cloud to IDA, seismic fragility, Latin hypercube sampling, INCREMENTAL DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS, PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT, COLLAPSE RISK, SENSITIVITY, INFORMATION, STRENGTH, SCALAR, DAMAGE note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Quantifying the impact of modelling uncertainty on seismic performance assessment of existing buildings is non-trivial when considering the partial information available on material properties, construction details, and the uncertainty in the capacity models. This task is further complicated when uncertainty related to ground motion representation is considered. To address this issue, record-to-record variability, uncertainties in structural model parameters, and fragility model parameters due to limited sample size are propagated herein by employing a nonlinear dynamic analysis procedure based on recorded ground motions. A one-to-one sampling approach is adopted in which each recorded ground motion is paired up with a different structural model realization. Uncertainty propagation is explored by measuring the impact of different sampling techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation with standard random sampling and Latin Hypercube sampling (with Simulated Annealing) in the presence of three alternative nonlinear dynamic analysis procedures: Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), Modified Cloud Analysis (MCA), and Cloud to IDA (a highly efficient IDA-like procedure). This is all illustrated through application to an existing reinforced-concrete school building in southern Italy. It is shown that with a small subset of records, both MCA and Cloud to IDA can provide reliable structural fragility (and risk) estimates for three considered limit states, comparable to the results of more resource-intensive schemes. date: 2024-07-02 date_type: published publisher: Informa UK Limited official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159 full_text_type: other language: eng verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2292724 doi: 10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159 lyricists_name: Jalayer, Fatemeh lyricists_id: FJALA58 actors_name: Dewerpe, Marie actors_id: MDDEW97 actors_role: owner funding_acknowledgements: [Universities for EU Projects from SEND consortium]; 945121 [European Commission] full_text_status: restricted publication: Journal of Earthquake Engineering pagerange: 1-26 issn: 1363-2469 citation: Miano, Andrea; Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh; Vamvatsikos, Dimitrios; Prota, Andrea; (2024) Propagation of Modelling Uncertainties for Seismic Risk Assessment: The Effect of Sampling Techniques on Low-Rise Non-Ductile RC Frames. Journal of Earthquake Engineering pp. 1-26. 10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159 <https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159>. (In press). document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10197090/1/Jalayer_JEE%20Propagation%20of%20modeling%20Uncertainties%20for%20seismic%20risk%20assessment_R1.pdf