eprintid: 10197090
rev_number: 7
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/19/70/90
datestamp: 2024-09-16 15:08:42
lastmod: 2024-09-16 15:08:42
status_changed: 2024-09-16 15:08:42
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Miano, Andrea
creators_name: Ebrahimian, Hossein
creators_name: Jalayer, Fatemeh
creators_name: Vamvatsikos, Dimitrios
creators_name: Prota, Andrea
title: Propagation of Modelling Uncertainties for Seismic Risk Assessment: The Effect of Sampling Techniques on Low-Rise Non-Ductile RC Frames
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C06
keywords: Science & Technology, Technology, Physical Sciences, Engineering, Civil, Engineering, Geological, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Engineering, Geology, Epistemic uncertainty, cloud analysis, incremental dynamic analysis, Cloud to IDA, seismic fragility, Latin hypercube sampling, INCREMENTAL DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS, PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT, COLLAPSE RISK, SENSITIVITY, INFORMATION, STRENGTH, SCALAR, DAMAGE
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
abstract: Quantifying the impact of modelling uncertainty on seismic performance assessment of existing buildings is non-trivial when considering the partial information available on material properties, construction details, and the uncertainty in the capacity models. This task is further complicated when uncertainty related to ground motion representation is considered. To address this issue, record-to-record variability, uncertainties in structural model parameters, and fragility model parameters due to limited sample size are propagated herein by employing a nonlinear dynamic analysis procedure based on recorded ground motions. A one-to-one sampling approach is adopted in which each recorded ground motion is paired up with a different structural model realization. Uncertainty propagation is explored by measuring the impact of different sampling techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation with standard random sampling and Latin Hypercube sampling (with Simulated Annealing) in the presence of three alternative nonlinear dynamic analysis procedures: Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), Modified Cloud Analysis (MCA), and Cloud to IDA (a highly efficient IDA-like procedure). This is all illustrated through application to an existing reinforced-concrete school building in southern Italy. It is shown that with a small subset of records, both MCA and Cloud to IDA can provide reliable structural fragility (and risk) estimates for three considered limit states, comparable to the results of more resource-intensive schemes.
date: 2024-07-02
date_type: published
publisher: Informa UK Limited
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159
full_text_type: other
language: eng
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2292724
doi: 10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159
lyricists_name: Jalayer, Fatemeh
lyricists_id: FJALA58
actors_name: Dewerpe, Marie
actors_id: MDDEW97
actors_role: owner
funding_acknowledgements: [Universities for EU Projects from SEND consortium]; 945121 [European Commission]
full_text_status: restricted
publication: Journal of Earthquake Engineering
pagerange: 1-26
issn: 1363-2469
citation:        Miano, Andrea;    Ebrahimian, Hossein;    Jalayer, Fatemeh;    Vamvatsikos, Dimitrios;    Prota, Andrea;      (2024)    Propagation of Modelling Uncertainties for Seismic Risk Assessment: The Effect of Sampling Techniques on Low-Rise Non-Ductile RC Frames.                   Journal of Earthquake Engineering     pp. 1-26.    10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159 <https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2024.2368159>.    (In press).   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10197090/1/Jalayer_JEE%20Propagation%20of%20modeling%20Uncertainties%20for%20seismic%20risk%20assessment_R1.pdf