eprintid: 10196855
rev_number: 7
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/19/68/55
datestamp: 2024-09-12 07:34:45
lastmod: 2024-09-12 07:34:45
status_changed: 2024-09-12 07:34:45
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Moraes, SLD
creators_name: Brousse, O
creators_name: Simpson, C
creators_name: Almendra, R
creators_name: Barrozo, LV
creators_name: Heaviside, C
title: The potential burden from urbanisation on heat-related mortality in São Paulo, Brazil
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F34
keywords: WRF, Climate change, Urban heat, Health impact assessment São Paulo, Heatwave
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
abstract: Heatwave events are associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality rates worldwide. Heat exposure is often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, especially in large cities. However, an accurate quantification of the additional burden related to heat from urbanisation is understudied in Latin American cities. Therefore, we used advanced meteorological modelling to simulate 2 m air temperature at 1 km spatial resolution across São Paulo, estimating UHI intensity attributing of all-cause mortality to heat and UHI during the 2014 heatwave. The Local Climate Zone classification system provided input land use parameters. Our model was validated against 31 weather stations and bias-corrected using linear regression. We calculated heat-related all-cause mortality, stratified by age, using the modelled temperature data, estimating 394 heat-related deaths. A counterfactual experiment, replacing urban areas with natural land, quantified the additional UHI burden. We found that the UHI may contribute to 69–70% of heat-related mortality (modelled temperature scenario). This work motivates the use of appropriate urban climate data, including careful model validation and bias correction, when assessing heat exposure and health risk assessment. It also highlights the health impacts from heatwaves in cities such as São Paulo, which are likely to increase due to climate change.
date: 2024-09
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104
full_text_type: other
language: eng
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2309356
doi: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104
lyricists_name: Heaviside, Clare
lyricists_name: Brousse, Oscar
lyricists_name: Simpson, Charles
lyricists_id: CHEAV01
lyricists_id: OCBRO03
lyricists_id: CHSIM58
actors_name: Simpson, Charles
actors_id: CHSIM58
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: restricted
publication: Urban Climate
volume: 57
article_number: 102104
citation:        Moraes, SLD;    Brousse, O;    Simpson, C;    Almendra, R;    Barrozo, LV;    Heaviside, C;      (2024)    The potential burden from urbanisation on heat-related mortality in São Paulo, Brazil.                   Urban Climate , 57     , Article 102104.  10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104>.      
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10196855/1/Moraes_2024_urban_climate.pdf