eprintid: 10196855 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/19/68/55 datestamp: 2024-09-12 07:34:45 lastmod: 2024-09-12 07:34:45 status_changed: 2024-09-12 07:34:45 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Moraes, SLD creators_name: Brousse, O creators_name: Simpson, C creators_name: Almendra, R creators_name: Barrozo, LV creators_name: Heaviside, C title: The potential burden from urbanisation on heat-related mortality in São Paulo, Brazil ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C04 divisions: F34 keywords: WRF, Climate change, Urban heat, Health impact assessment São Paulo, Heatwave note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. abstract: Heatwave events are associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality rates worldwide. Heat exposure is often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, especially in large cities. However, an accurate quantification of the additional burden related to heat from urbanisation is understudied in Latin American cities. Therefore, we used advanced meteorological modelling to simulate 2 m air temperature at 1 km spatial resolution across São Paulo, estimating UHI intensity attributing of all-cause mortality to heat and UHI during the 2014 heatwave. The Local Climate Zone classification system provided input land use parameters. Our model was validated against 31 weather stations and bias-corrected using linear regression. We calculated heat-related all-cause mortality, stratified by age, using the modelled temperature data, estimating 394 heat-related deaths. A counterfactual experiment, replacing urban areas with natural land, quantified the additional UHI burden. We found that the UHI may contribute to 69–70% of heat-related mortality (modelled temperature scenario). This work motivates the use of appropriate urban climate data, including careful model validation and bias correction, when assessing heat exposure and health risk assessment. It also highlights the health impacts from heatwaves in cities such as São Paulo, which are likely to increase due to climate change. date: 2024-09 date_type: published publisher: Elsevier BV official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104 full_text_type: other language: eng verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2309356 doi: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104 lyricists_name: Heaviside, Clare lyricists_name: Brousse, Oscar lyricists_name: Simpson, Charles lyricists_id: CHEAV01 lyricists_id: OCBRO03 lyricists_id: CHSIM58 actors_name: Simpson, Charles actors_id: CHSIM58 actors_role: owner full_text_status: restricted publication: Urban Climate volume: 57 article_number: 102104 citation: Moraes, SLD; Brousse, O; Simpson, C; Almendra, R; Barrozo, LV; Heaviside, C; (2024) The potential burden from urbanisation on heat-related mortality in São Paulo, Brazil. Urban Climate , 57 , Article 102104. 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104>. document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10196855/1/Moraes_2024_urban_climate.pdf