TY  - JOUR
AV  - restricted
TI  - The potential burden from urbanisation on heat-related mortality in São Paulo, Brazil
Y1  - 2024/09//
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102104
ID  - discovery10196855
N2  - Heatwave events are associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality rates worldwide. Heat exposure is often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, especially in large cities. However, an accurate quantification of the additional burden related to heat from urbanisation is understudied in Latin American cities. Therefore, we used advanced meteorological modelling to simulate 2 m air temperature at 1 km spatial resolution across São Paulo, estimating UHI intensity attributing of all-cause mortality to heat and UHI during the 2014 heatwave. The Local Climate Zone classification system provided input land use parameters. Our model was validated against 31 weather stations and bias-corrected using linear regression. We calculated heat-related all-cause mortality, stratified by age, using the modelled temperature data, estimating 394 heat-related deaths. A counterfactual experiment, replacing urban areas with natural land, quantified the additional UHI burden. We found that the UHI may contribute to 69?70% of heat-related mortality (modelled temperature scenario). This work motivates the use of appropriate urban climate data, including careful model validation and bias correction, when assessing heat exposure and health risk assessment. It also highlights the health impacts from heatwaves in cities such as São Paulo, which are likely to increase due to climate change.
N1  - This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
VL  - 57
KW  - WRF
KW  -  Climate change
KW  -  Urban heat
KW  -  Health impact assessment São Paulo
KW  -  Heatwave
JF  - Urban Climate
PB  - Elsevier BV
A1  - Moraes, SLD
A1  - Brousse, O
A1  - Simpson, C
A1  - Almendra, R
A1  - Barrozo, LV
A1  - Heaviside, C
ER  -