eprintid: 10193649 rev_number: 9 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/19/36/49 datestamp: 2024-06-19 11:32:28 lastmod: 2025-06-16 06:10:07 status_changed: 2024-06-19 11:32:28 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Zhao, Rongtian creators_name: Wang, Daoping creators_name: Ge, Yong creators_name: Zhang, Mo creators_name: Zhang, Die creators_name: Coffman, D'Maris creators_name: Cheng, Qiuming title: Cascade effects of global supply chains induced by regional conflicts increase global inequality ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C04 keywords: Global supply chains, Production resources, Cascade effects, Regional conflict, Inequality, Geographic economic methods note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Regional conflicts have become prominent in triggering shocks on supply chains and cascade effects on resource management. Reliable assessments of the cascading pattern of production resources among sectors globally are missing. Here, we modeled global multisectoral production losses and the cascading pattern of a grain supply shock in the Russia–Ukraine regional conflict by utilizing a geographic input–output approach. We find that the most cascading losses emerged in the textile (17.04 % ± 0.72 %, 95 % confidence intervals) and food-processing sectors (16.85 % ± 0.5 %). The shock propagated in a “grain–processed food/livestock” direct chain and a “light manufacturing–heavy manufacturing/textile” indirect chain. Prolonged conflict and disrupted resource allocation decreased the efficiency of production recovery in low-income countries and amplified inequality of production resources. Our approach presents a quantitative framework for unexpected supply chain shocks. The findings support the case for production aid to low-income countries and circular supply chains for sustainable development. date: 2024-10-01 date_type: published publisher: Elsevier BV official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107740 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2286940 doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107740 lyricists_name: Coffman, D'Maris lyricists_id: DCOFF28 actors_name: Dewerpe, Marie actors_id: MDDEW97 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Resources, Conservation and Recycling volume: 209 article_number: 107740 issn: 0921-3449 citation: Zhao, Rongtian; Wang, Daoping; Ge, Yong; Zhang, Mo; Zhang, Die; Coffman, D'Maris; Cheng, Qiuming; (2024) Cascade effects of global supply chains induced by regional conflicts increase global inequality. Resources, Conservation and Recycling , 209 , Article 107740. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107740 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107740>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10193649/1/Coffman_RECYCL-D-24-00448_R1%20%28003%29.pdf