eprintid: 10190901
rev_number: 7
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/19/09/01
datestamp: 2024-04-18 07:10:31
lastmod: 2024-04-18 07:10:31
status_changed: 2024-04-18 07:10:31
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Taylor, Jonathon
creators_name: Simpson, Charles
creators_name: Brousse, Oscar
creators_name: Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa
creators_name: Heaviside, Clare
title: The potential of urban trees to reduce heat-related mortality in London
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F34
keywords: Urban heat island, personal weather stations, climate change, heat mortality, tree canopy
note: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
abstract: Increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwave events pose threats to population health, particularly in urban environments due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Greening, in particular planting trees, is widely discussed as a means of reducing heat exposure and associated mortality in cities. This study aims to use data from personal weather stations (PWS) across the Greater London Authority to understand how urban temperatures vary according to tree canopy coverage and estimate the heat-health impacts of London's urban trees. Data from Netatmo PWS from 2015–2022 were cleaned, combined with official Met Office temperatures, and spatially linked to tree canopy coverage and built environment data. A generalized additive model was used to predict daily average urban temperatures under different tree canopy coverage scenarios for historical and projected future summers, and subsequent health impacts estimated. Results show areas of London with higher canopy coverage have lower urban temperatures, with average maximum daytime temperatures 0.8 °C and minimum temperatures 2.0 °C lower in the top decile versus bottom decile canopy coverage during the 2022 heatwaves. We estimate that London's urban forest helped avoid 153 heat attributable deaths from 2015–2022 (including 16 excess deaths during the 2022 heatwaves), representing around 16% of UHI-related mortality. Increasing tree coverage 10% in-line with the London strategy would have reduced UHI-related mortality by a further 10%, while a maximal tree coverage would have reduced it 55%. By 2061–2080, under RCP8.5, we estimate that London's current tree planting strategy can help avoid an additional 23 heat-attributable deaths a year, with maximal coverage increasing this to 131. Substantial benefits would also be seen for carbon storage and sequestration. Results of this study support increasing urban tree coverage as part of a wider public health effort to mitigate high urban temperatures.
date: 2024-05
date_type: published
publisher: IOP Publishing
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2268425
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e
pii: erlad3a7e
lyricists_name: Heaviside, Clare
lyricists_name: Brousse, Oscar
lyricists_name: Simpson, Charles
lyricists_id: CHEAV01
lyricists_id: OCBRO03
lyricists_id: CHSIM58
actors_name: Bracey, Alan
actors_id: ABBRA90
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Environmental Research Letters
volume: 19
number: 5
article_number: 054004
event_location: England
issn: 1748-9326
citation:        Taylor, Jonathon;    Simpson, Charles;    Brousse, Oscar;    Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa;    Heaviside, Clare;      (2024)    The potential of urban trees to reduce heat-related mortality in London.                   Environmental Research Letters , 19  (5)    , Article 054004.  10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fad3a7e>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10190901/1/Taylor_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_054004.pdf