eprintid: 10190901 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/19/09/01 datestamp: 2024-04-18 07:10:31 lastmod: 2024-04-18 07:10:31 status_changed: 2024-04-18 07:10:31 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Taylor, Jonathon creators_name: Simpson, Charles creators_name: Brousse, Oscar creators_name: Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa creators_name: Heaviside, Clare title: The potential of urban trees to reduce heat-related mortality in London ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C04 divisions: F34 keywords: Urban heat island, personal weather stations, climate change, heat mortality, tree canopy note: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. abstract: Increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwave events pose threats to population health, particularly in urban environments due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Greening, in particular planting trees, is widely discussed as a means of reducing heat exposure and associated mortality in cities. This study aims to use data from personal weather stations (PWS) across the Greater London Authority to understand how urban temperatures vary according to tree canopy coverage and estimate the heat-health impacts of London's urban trees. Data from Netatmo PWS from 2015–2022 were cleaned, combined with official Met Office temperatures, and spatially linked to tree canopy coverage and built environment data. A generalized additive model was used to predict daily average urban temperatures under different tree canopy coverage scenarios for historical and projected future summers, and subsequent health impacts estimated. Results show areas of London with higher canopy coverage have lower urban temperatures, with average maximum daytime temperatures 0.8 °C and minimum temperatures 2.0 °C lower in the top decile versus bottom decile canopy coverage during the 2022 heatwaves. We estimate that London's urban forest helped avoid 153 heat attributable deaths from 2015–2022 (including 16 excess deaths during the 2022 heatwaves), representing around 16% of UHI-related mortality. Increasing tree coverage 10% in-line with the London strategy would have reduced UHI-related mortality by a further 10%, while a maximal tree coverage would have reduced it 55%. By 2061–2080, under RCP8.5, we estimate that London's current tree planting strategy can help avoid an additional 23 heat-attributable deaths a year, with maximal coverage increasing this to 131. Substantial benefits would also be seen for carbon storage and sequestration. Results of this study support increasing urban tree coverage as part of a wider public health effort to mitigate high urban temperatures. date: 2024-05 date_type: published publisher: IOP Publishing official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2268425 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e pii: erlad3a7e lyricists_name: Heaviside, Clare lyricists_name: Brousse, Oscar lyricists_name: Simpson, Charles lyricists_id: CHEAV01 lyricists_id: OCBRO03 lyricists_id: CHSIM58 actors_name: Bracey, Alan actors_id: ABBRA90 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Environmental Research Letters volume: 19 number: 5 article_number: 054004 event_location: England issn: 1748-9326 citation: Taylor, Jonathon; Simpson, Charles; Brousse, Oscar; Viitanen, Anna-Kaisa; Heaviside, Clare; (2024) The potential of urban trees to reduce heat-related mortality in London. Environmental Research Letters , 19 (5) , Article 054004. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2Fad3a7e>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10190901/1/Taylor_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_054004.pdf