eprintid: 10189669 rev_number: 14 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/18/96/69 datestamp: 2024-03-25 10:05:55 lastmod: 2024-08-02 12:59:10 status_changed: 2024-03-25 10:05:55 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Yi, Jiahuan creators_name: Mahgerefteh, Haroun creators_name: Porter, Richard title: A probabilistic approach to optimal emergency shutdown valve configuration for pressurised pipelines ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F43 keywords: Emergency shutdown valves; Valve optimisation; Pressurised CO2 pipelines; Multi-objective optimisation; Quantitative risk assessment note: This version is the author-accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: A multi-objective optimisation technique for selecting the optimal number of in-line Emergency Shutdown Valves (ESDVs) for pressurised CO2 pipelines by balancing risk, treated as a probabilistic variable, against valve cost is presented. Starting with modelling the uncertainties in pipeline characteristics and operating conditions using standard Probability Density Functions (PDFs), a Monte Carlo simulation involving the random sampling from these PDFs is performed to obtain the probability distribution of the risk associated with pipeline failure. Based on the obtained probability distribution, mapping the risk in the space of the objective functions provides a probabilistic solution plane for determining the optimal number of ESDVs. The efficacy of the proposed technique is demonstrated via comparative research where the risk is treated deterministically as the worst-case scenario. The findings reveal that more probabilistically cost-effective risk mitigation solutions can be attained when the risks associated with possible failure scenarios are assessed during the risk mitigation planning process, rather than employing a pre-determined expected risk value before the planning phase, as the well-established practice. This highlights the importance of the uncertainties in pipeline characteristics and operating conditions in helping decision makers configure in-line ESDVs effectively in CO2 pipelines. date: 2024-08-10 date_type: published publisher: Elsevier official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915 full_text_type: other language: eng verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2134146 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915 lyricists_name: Porter, Richard lyricists_name: Mahgerefteh, Haroun lyricists_id: RTJPO82 lyricists_id: HMAHG74 actors_name: Mahgerefteh, Haroun actors_id: HMAHG74 actors_role: owner funding_acknowledgements: 884418 [EU Horizon 2020] full_text_status: restricted publication: Journal of Cleaner Production volume: 466 article_number: 142915 issn: 0959-6526 citation: Yi, Jiahuan; Mahgerefteh, Haroun; Porter, Richard; (2024) A probabilistic approach to optimal emergency shutdown valve configuration for pressurised pipelines. Journal of Cleaner Production , 466 , Article 142915. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915>. document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10189669/2/Mahgerefteh_probabilistic%20approach%20to%20optimal%20emergency_AAM.pdf