eprintid: 10187354
rev_number: 11
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/18/73/54
datestamp: 2024-02-19 08:24:14
lastmod: 2024-02-19 10:38:39
status_changed: 2024-02-19 08:24:14
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Hajat, Shakoor
creators_name: Gampe, David
creators_name: Petrou, Giorgos
title: Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F34
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
abstract: Objectives: To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change.
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Methods: We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November–March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change.
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Results: Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided.
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Conclusions: Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor.
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Public Health Implications: Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1–e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).
date: 2024-02-15
date_type: published
publisher: American Public Health Association
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2023.307552
full_text_type: other
language: eng
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2248006
doi: 10.2105/ajph.2023.307552
lyricists_name: Petrou, Giorgos
lyricists_id: GPETR43
actors_name: Petrou, Giorgos
actors_id: GPETR43
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: restricted
publication: American Journal of Public Health
pagerange: e1-e5
issn: 0090-0036
citation:        Hajat, Shakoor;    Gampe, David;    Petrou, Giorgos;      (2024)    Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019.                   American Journal of Public Health     e1-e5.    10.2105/ajph.2023.307552 <https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2023.307552>.    (In press).   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187354/1/Hajat_2024_accepted.pdf