TY  - INPR
AV  - restricted
TI  - Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976?2019
SN  - 0090-0036
Y1  - 2024/02/15/
EP  - e5
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2023.307552
ID  - discovery10187354
N2  - Objectives: To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change.
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Methods: We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1?203?981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November?March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change.
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Results: Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8?°C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval?=?330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided.
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Conclusions: Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor.
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Public Health Implications: Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1?e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).
SP  - e1
N1  - This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher?s terms and conditions.
A1  - Hajat, Shakoor
A1  - Gampe, David
A1  - Petrou, Giorgos
PB  - American Public Health Association
JF  - American Journal of Public Health
ER  -