%0 Journal Article
%@ 0090-0036
%A Hajat, Shakoor
%A Gampe, David
%A Petrou, Giorgos
%D 2024
%F discovery:10187354
%I American Public Health Association
%J American Journal of Public Health
%P e1-e5
%T Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019
%U https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187354/
%X Objectives: To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change.  //  Methods: We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November–March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change.  //  Results: Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided.  //  Conclusions: Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor.  //  Public Health Implications: Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1–e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).
%Z This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.