@article{discovery10187354,
            note = {This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.},
           pages = {e1--e5},
            year = {2024},
           month = {February},
           title = {Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019},
         journal = {American Journal of Public Health},
       publisher = {American Public Health Association},
            issn = {0090-0036},
        abstract = {Objectives: To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change.
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Methods: We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November-March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change.
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Results: Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 oC) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95\% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided.
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Conclusions: Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor.
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Public Health Implications: Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1-e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).},
             url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2023.307552},
          author = {Hajat, Shakoor and Gampe, David and Petrou, Giorgos}
}