eprintid: 10187102 rev_number: 10 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/18/71/02 datestamp: 2024-02-13 15:45:33 lastmod: 2024-08-09 09:39:51 status_changed: 2024-02-13 15:45:33 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Foster, Vivien creators_name: Trotter, Philipp A creators_name: Werner, Sven creators_name: Niedermayer, Melin creators_name: Mulugetta, Yacob creators_name: Achakulwisut, Ploy creators_name: Brophy, Aoife creators_name: Dubash, Navroz K creators_name: Fankhauser, Sam creators_name: Hawkes, Adam creators_name: Hirmer, Stephanie creators_name: Jenkins, Stuart creators_name: Loni, Sam creators_name: McGivern, Alexis creators_name: Nanthavong, Khamphone creators_name: Probst, Benedict creators_name: Pye, Steve creators_name: Russo, Vladimir creators_name: Semieniuk, Gregor creators_name: Shenga, Carlos creators_name: Sridharan, Vignesh creators_name: Srivastav, Sugandha creators_name: Sokona, Youba creators_name: Croxatto, Lucas Somavilla creators_name: Yang, Pu title: Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: C04 divisions: J39 divisions: F34 keywords: Carbon and energy, Developing world, Energy justice note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity. date: 2024-03 date_type: published publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC official_url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2245335 doi: 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3 lyricists_name: Somavilla, Lucas lyricists_name: Pye, Stephen lyricists_name: Mulugetta, Yacob lyricists_name: Yang, Pu lyricists_id: LSOMA45 lyricists_id: SPYEX31 lyricists_id: YMULU57 lyricists_id: YANGE49 actors_name: Somavilla, Lucas actors_id: LSOMA45 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Nature Energy volume: 9 pagerange: 242-250 issn: 2058-7546 citation: Foster, Vivien; Trotter, Philipp A; Werner, Sven; Niedermayer, Melin; Mulugetta, Yacob; Achakulwisut, Ploy; Brophy, Aoife; ... Yang, Pu; + view all <#> Foster, Vivien; Trotter, Philipp A; Werner, Sven; Niedermayer, Melin; Mulugetta, Yacob; Achakulwisut, Ploy; Brophy, Aoife; Dubash, Navroz K; Fankhauser, Sam; Hawkes, Adam; Hirmer, Stephanie; Jenkins, Stuart; Loni, Sam; McGivern, Alexis; Nanthavong, Khamphone; Probst, Benedict; Pye, Steve; Russo, Vladimir; Semieniuk, Gregor; Shenga, Carlos; Sridharan, Vignesh; Srivastav, Sugandha; Sokona, Youba; Croxatto, Lucas Somavilla; Yang, Pu; - view fewer <#> (2024) Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world. Nature Energy , 9 pp. 242-250. 10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187102/1/Nature%20Energy_Accepted%20Manuscript.pdf