eprintid: 10176045
rev_number: 7
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/17/60/45
datestamp: 2023-08-31 11:30:18
lastmod: 2023-08-31 11:30:18
status_changed: 2023-08-31 11:30:18
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Murayama, Hiroaki
creators_name: Pearson, Carl AB
creators_name: Abbott, Sam
creators_name: Miura, Fuminari
creators_name: Jung, Sung-mok
creators_name: Fearon, Elizabeth
creators_name: Funk, Sebastian
creators_name: Endo, Akira
title: Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B02
divisions: D01
keywords: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Immunology, Infectious Diseases, Microbiology, depletion of susceptibles, heavy-tailed network, herd immunity, men who have sex with men, mpox
note: © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
abstract: Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline with less than 1% of sexually active MSM population infected regardless of interventions or behavioural changes. Consistently, we found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak with cumulative cases of around 0.1-0.5% of MSM population. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioural changes primarily.
date: 2023-07-04
date_type: published
publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad254
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 2038714
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiad254
medium: Print-Electronic
pii: 7218978
lyricists_name: Fearon, Elizabeth
lyricists_id: EMFEA55
actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette
actors_id: BFFLY94
actors_role: owner
funding_acknowledgements: [Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Overseas Research Fellowships]; 22K17329 [JSPS]; 20J00793 [JSPS]; [foundation for the Fusion of Science and Technology]; JPMJPR22R3 [Japan Science and Technology Agency Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology]; 210758/Z/18/Z [Wellcome Trust]; 800176 [Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 joint undertaking]; [European Union]; [European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA)]; 200-2016-91781 [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention SHEPheRD]; MR/S020462/1 [Medical Research Council, United Kingdom Research and Innovation]
full_text_status: public
publication: The Journal of Infectious Diseases
article_number: jiad254
pages: 5
event_location: United States
issn: 0022-1899
citation:        Murayama, Hiroaki;    Pearson, Carl AB;    Abbott, Sam;    Miura, Fuminari;    Jung, Sung-mok;    Fearon, Elizabeth;    Funk, Sebastian;           Murayama, Hiroaki;  Pearson, Carl AB;  Abbott, Sam;  Miura, Fuminari;  Jung, Sung-mok;  Fearon, Elizabeth;  Funk, Sebastian;  Endo, Akira;   - view fewer <#>    (2023)    Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes.                   The Journal of Infectious Diseases      , Article jiad254.  10.1093/infdis/jiad254 <https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis%2Fjiad254>.    (In press).    Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10176045/1/jiad254.pdf