TY  - INPR
ID  - discovery10176045
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad254
EP  - 5
N2  - Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline with less than 1% of sexually active MSM population infected regardless of interventions or behavioural changes. Consistently, we found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak with cumulative cases of around 0.1-0.5% of MSM population. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioural changes primarily.
AV  - public
TI  - Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes
Y1  - 2023/07/04/
SN  - 0022-1899
KW  - Science & Technology
KW  -  Life Sciences & Biomedicine
KW  -  Immunology
KW  -  Infectious Diseases
KW  -  Microbiology
KW  -  depletion of susceptibles
KW  -  heavy-tailed network
KW  -  herd immunity
KW  -  men who have sex with men
KW  -  mpox
PB  - OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
JF  - The Journal of Infectious Diseases
A1  - Murayama, Hiroaki
A1  - Pearson, Carl AB
A1  - Abbott, Sam
A1  - Miura, Fuminari
A1  - Jung, Sung-mok
A1  - Fearon, Elizabeth
A1  - Funk, Sebastian
A1  - Endo, Akira
N1  - © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
ER  -