eprintid: 10174912 rev_number: 15 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/17/49/12 datestamp: 2023-08-09 07:29:19 lastmod: 2024-11-01 07:10:11 status_changed: 2023-08-09 07:29:19 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Northrop, Paul J title: Stochastic models of rainfall ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C06 divisions: F61 keywords: Climate change, flood risk assessment, point process, Poisson cluster process, stochastic-mechanistic model, stochastic rainfall generation note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Rainfall is the main input to most hydrological systems. To assess flood risk for a catchment area, hydrologists use models that require long series of subdaily, perhaps even subhourly, rainfall data, ideally from locations that cover the area. If historical data are not sufficient for this purpose, an alternative is to simulate synthetic data from a suitably calibrated model. We review stochastic models that have a mechanistic structure, intended to mimic physical features of the rainfall processes, and are constructed using stationary point processes.We describe models for temporal and spatial-temporal rainfall and consider how they can be fitted to data. We provide an example application using a temporal model and an illustration of data simulated from a spatial-temporal model.We discuss how these models can contribute to the simulation of future rainfall that reflects our changing climate. date: 2024-03 date_type: published publisher: Annual Reviews Inc. official_url: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040622-023838 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 2043673 doi: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040622-023838 lyricists_name: Northrop, Paul lyricists_id: PJNOR32 actors_name: Northrop, Paul actors_id: PJNOR32 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application volume: 11 pagerange: 1-27 issn: 2326-8298 citation: Northrop, Paul J; (2024) Stochastic models of rainfall. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application , 11 pp. 1-27. 10.1146/annurev-statistics-040622-023838 <https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040622-023838>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10174912/1/StochasticModelsOfRainfall.pdf