%K Demographic projection; religiosity; secularization; microsimulation; cohort effects
%V 9
%A Ivan Puga-Gonzalez
%A David Voas
%A Lukasz Kiszkiel
%A Rachel J Bacon
%A Wesley J Wildman
%A Konrad Talmont-Kaminski
%A F LeRon Shults
%X This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of “fuzzy fidelity,” i.e., the percentage of a population whose religiosity is moderate (Voas 2009). Validation of the model involved comparing its simulation results to shifts in religiosity over 9 waves of the European Social Survey. Simulation experiments suggest that a cohort effect, based on weakened transmission of religiosity as a function of the social environment, appears to be the best explanation for secularization in the societies studied, both for the population as a whole and for the proportions of religious, fuzzy, and secular people.
%J Journal of Religion and Demography
%N 1-2
%L discovery10163198
%I Brill
%D 2022
%O This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
%T Modeling Fuzzy Fidelity: Using Microsimulation to Explore Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Secularization
%P 111-137