eprintid: 10158074
rev_number: 6
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/15/80/74
datestamp: 2022-10-27 07:23:14
lastmod: 2022-10-27 07:23:14
status_changed: 2022-10-27 07:23:14
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Askjær, TG
creators_name: Zhang, Q
creators_name: Schenk, F
creators_name: Ljungqvist, FC
creators_name: Lu, Z
creators_name: Brierley, CM
creators_name: Hopcroft, PO
creators_name: Jungclaus, J
creators_name: Shi, X
creators_name: Lohmann, G
creators_name: Sun, W
creators_name: Liu, J
creators_name: Braconnot, P
creators_name: Otto-Bliesner, BL
creators_name: Wu, Z
creators_name: Yin, Q
creators_name: Kang, Y
creators_name: Yang, H
title: Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations
ispublished: pub
divisions: C03
divisions: F26
divisions: B03
divisions: UCL
keywords: Multi-centennial climate variability, Paleoclimate proxy records, Holocene transient simulations, Spectral analysis,
Model-proxy comparison
note: © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
abstract: Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.
date: 2022-11-15
date_type: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1983867
doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801
lyricists_name: Brierley, Christopher
lyricists_id: CCBBR95
actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette
actors_id: BFFLY94
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Quaternary Science Reviews
volume: 296
article_number: 107801
issn: 0277-3791
citation:        Askjær, TG;    Zhang, Q;    Schenk, F;    Ljungqvist, FC;    Lu, Z;    Brierley, CM;    Hopcroft, PO;                                             ... Yang, H; + view all <#>        Askjær, TG;  Zhang, Q;  Schenk, F;  Ljungqvist, FC;  Lu, Z;  Brierley, CM;  Hopcroft, PO;  Jungclaus, J;  Shi, X;  Lohmann, G;  Sun, W;  Liu, J;  Braconnot, P;  Otto-Bliesner, BL;  Wu, Z;  Yin, Q;  Kang, Y;  Yang, H;   - view fewer <#>    (2022)    Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations.                   Quaternary Science Reviews , 296     , Article 107801.  10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10158074/1/1-s2.0-S0277379122004322-main.pdf